Related papers: Forecasting the solar cycle using variational data…
We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact.…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
This paper presents the analysis of 3D evolution of solar wind density turbulence and speed at various levels of solar activity between solar cycles 22 and 24. The solar wind data has been obtained from interplanetary scintillation (IPS)…
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…
The pattern of migrating zonal flow bands associated with the solar cycle, known as the torsional oscillation, has been monitored with continuous global helioseismic observations by the Global Oscillations Network Group, together with those…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
Data assimilation combines prior (or background) information with observations to estimate the initial state of a dynamical system over a given time-window. A common application is in numerical weather prediction where a previous forecast…
This paper presents and evaluates the performance of an optimal scheduling algorithm that selects the on/off combinations and timing of a finite set of dynamic electric loads on the basis of short term predictions of the power delivery from…
The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…
Solar quasi-biennial oscillations with period range 0.6 to 4 years, are prominent in records of solar activity. Here we show that the 1.6 year quasi-biennial oscillation in solar activity has the exceptional feature of phase inversion…
The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…
This paper is a contribution in the context of variational data assimilation combined with statistical learning. The framework of data assimilation traditionally uses data collected at sensor locations in order to bring corrections to a…
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days (SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycle $11$--$24$ to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle $25$. For this purpose, in addition to SLD, we also use the geomagnetic…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…