Related papers: Forecasting the solar cycle using variational data…
With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…
A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…
Data assimilation method consists in combining all available pieces of information about a system to obtain optimal estimates of initial states. The different sources of information are weighted according to their accuracy by the means of…
We show how the 3DVAR data assimilation methodology can be used in the astrophysical context of a two-dimensional convection flow. We study the way this variational approach finds best estimates of the current state of the flow from a…
Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…
We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
The process of the Sun's polar field cancellation reversal commences with the emergence of new cycle Hale's polarity active regions. Once the Sun undergoes polarity reversal, typically occurring near the peak of solar activity, it begins…
The frequency, $\nu_{\rm max}$, at which the envelope of pulsation power peaks for solar-like oscillators is an important quantity in asteroseismology. We measure $\nu_{\rm max}$ for the Sun using 25 years of Sun-as-a-Star Doppler velocity…
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…
Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…
Using both wavelet and Fourier analysis, a study has been undertaken of the changes in the quasi-periodic variations in solar photospheric fields in the build-up to one of the deepest solar minima experienced in the past 100 years. This…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have…
In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts,…
We use the technique of wavelet analysis to quantitatively investigate the role of solar variability in forcing terrestrial climate change on solar cycle timescales (roughly 11 years). We examine the connection between mean annual solar…
The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…
Further development of the work of Obridko et al. [1] based on recent data confirms the assumption that the 25th cycle of solar activity is a medium-low cycle. Its height is expected to be $125.2\pm5.6$, and the expected date of the maximum…
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…
This study evaluates the effectiveness of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation coupled with a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) framework for improving short-range precipitation forecasts over the Indonesian Maritime Continent…