Related papers: Forecasting the solar cycle using variational data…
We present solar low-degree rotational splitting values based on a new analysis of Sun-as-a-star observations from the Birmingham Solar Oscillations Network, covering a 16,425-day period from 1976 December 31--2021 December 20 with a duty…
Every day, weather forecasting centres around the world make use of noisy, incomplete observations of the atmosphere to update their weather forecasts. This process is known as data assimilation, data fusion or state estimation and is best…
The solar interior is probed by the properties of the Sun's acoustic oscillations (p-modes) observed on the solar surface. The frequencies of these p-modes measured in the last three decades show long term variation similar to the 11 year…
Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically…
Numerical simulations that reproduce solar-like magnetic cycles can be used to generate long-term statistics. The variations in N-S hemispheric cycle synchronicity and amplitude produced in simulations has not been widely compared to…
We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22.…
Aims. In this paper, we investigate the temporal evolution and north-south (N-S) asymmetry in the occurrence of solar flares during cycle 21, 22, and 23, and compare the results with traditional solar activity indices. Methods. The flare…
We have analyzed available full-disc data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board SoHO using the "ring diagram" technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius.…
This paper presents a comparison of two reduced-order, sequential and variational data assimilation methods: the SEEK filter and the R-4D-Var. A hybridization of the two, combining the variational framework and the sequential evolution of…
The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between…
In-situ ocean wave observations are critical to improve model skill and validate remote sensing wave measurements. Historically, such observations are extremely sparse due to the large costs and complexity of traditional wave buoys and…
Data assimilation involves estimating the state of a system by combining observations from various sources with a background estimate of the state. The weights given to the observations and background state depend on their specified error…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
Satellite-based solar irradiation forecasting is useful for short-term intra-day time horizons, outperforming numerical weather predictions up to 3-4 hours ahead. The main techniques for solar satellite forecast are based on sophisticated…
The annual temperature cycle of the earth closely follows the annual cycle of solar flux. At temperate latitudes, both driving and response cycles are well described by a strong annual sinusoidal component and a non-vanishing semiannual…
We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…
Analysis of over 36 years of time series data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five components of the variation of the seven measured chromospheric parameters: (a) the solar cycle (period ~ 11 years), (b)…
Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…
The short-term periodicities of the daily sunspot area fluctuations from August 1923 to October 1933 are discussed. For these data the correlative analysis indicates negative correlation for the periodicity of about 155 days, but the power…
The Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON) has been collecting data for over 30yrs and so observations span nearly three 11yr solar activity cycles. This allows us to address important questions concerning the solar cycle and its…