English

Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics 2022-08-03 v2

Abstract

We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second rule relates the length of a given cycle from minimum to minimum and the amplitude of the next one. Using corresponding linear regressions we obtain for the amplitide of cycle 25 in the scale of 13-month smoothed monthly total revised sunspot number SNmax(25)=181±46{\rm SN}_{\rm max}(25) = 181\pm46 and for the moment of the maximum Tmax(25)=2024.2±1.0T_{\rm max}(25) = 2024.2\pm1.0. Therefore, according to the prediction, cycle 25 will be higher than the previous one (SNmax(24)=116{\rm SN}_{\rm max}(24) = 116) with probability 0.92.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2203.02028,
  title  = {Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations},
  author = {Vladimir G. Ivanov},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.02028},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

7 pages, 6 figures; submitted to Solar Physics

R2 v1 2026-06-24T10:01:31.736Z