Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations
Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
2022-08-03 v2
Abstract
We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second rule relates the length of a given cycle from minimum to minimum and the amplitude of the next one. Using corresponding linear regressions we obtain for the amplitide of cycle 25 in the scale of 13-month smoothed monthly total revised sunspot number and for the moment of the maximum . Therefore, according to the prediction, cycle 25 will be higher than the previous one () with probability 0.92.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2203.02028,
title = {Solar cycle 25 prediction using length-to-amplitude relations},
author = {Vladimir G. Ivanov},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.02028},
year = {2022}
}
Comments
7 pages, 6 figures; submitted to Solar Physics