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Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward-equatorward migrations over centennial to millennial…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Community risk perceptions can influence their abilities to cope with coastal hazards such as hurricanes and coastal flooding.Our study presents an initial effort to examine the relationship between community resilience and risk perception…
Accelerated sea level rise has resulted in recurrent flooding in coastal regions, increasingly impacting both transportation systems and local populations. Using the Hampton Roads region in Virginia as a case study, this study a. identifies…
Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to…
Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, researchers often generate large ensembles of synthetic storms…
Full impact assessment of tropical cyclones each year requires a comprehensive sociodemographic analysis. We evaluated sociodemographic characteristics of tropical cyclone-impacted regions during the 2024 calendar year in recent historical…
In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become…
In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have devastating effects on several coastal regions worldwide. Precautionary knowledge about TC characteristics such as wind direction, wind speed, epicenter position, condensed vapor pressure measure, and radius of…
Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
This paper studies natural disasters and the psychological costs of climate change. It presents what we believe to be the first evidence that higher temperature variability and not a higher level of temperature is what predicts natural…
Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing…
TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity. To allow a fair and model-agnostic comparison, TCBench builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and…
This paper explores the features of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) by utilizing data from 1990 to 2022. It investigates the occurrence rate of these disturbances and their effects on human and economic losses…
Inspired by reliability issues in electric transmission networks, we use a probabilistic approach to study the occurrence of large failures in a stylized cascading failure model. In this model, lines have random capacities that initially…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…
Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…