English

Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Kossin et al. (PNAS 2020)

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 2022-05-10 v1

Abstract

Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all cyclones) should increase. Yet, the highest relative proportional increase in incidence occurred in category 3 cyclones. The highest relative proportional decrease occurred in category 5 cyclones. This inference is not due to different treatment of measurement error. It is plausibly due to lower power for relatively rarer category 5 cyclones.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2205.04059,
  title  = {Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Kossin et al. (PNAS 2020)},
  author = {Ivo Welch},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.04059},
  year   = {2022}
}