Related papers: Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone In…
Kossin et al. (2020) report a rising ratio of satellite observations of major C3-C5 storms relative to all C1-C5 storms from 1979 to 2017. Decomposing their R = N(C3+)/N(C1+) statistic into per-category shares shows that their trend was…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…
Anthropogenic influences have been linked to tropical cyclone (TC) poleward migration, TC extreme precipitation, and an increased proportion of major hurricanes [1, 2, 3, 4]. Understanding past TC trends and variability is critical for…
Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive natural phenomena on earth. Tropical storms and heavy rains can cause floods, which lead to human lives and economic loss. Devastating winds accompanying cyclones heavily affect…
The influence of climate variability and global warming on the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TC) is a controversial issue. Existing historical databases on the subject are not fully reliable, but a more fundamental hindrance is the lack…
An open-source, physics-based tropical cyclone downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of tropical cyclones. The model is composed of three primary components: (1) a random seeding process that determines…
This paper discusses the time series trend and variability of the cyclone frequencies over Bay of Bengal, particularly in order to conclude if there is any significant difference in the pattern visible before and after the disastrous 2004…
The near universal references to the above paper by most of the major US media outlets and blogs since Katrina and Rita made US landfall requires a response from a few of us who study hurricanes. Having been involved with hurricane research…
Accurate forecasting of Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is crucial for formulating disaster risk reduction strategies. Current methods predominantly rely on limited spatiotemporal information from ERA5 data and neglect the causal…
The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…
Rapid intensification (RI) is likely the most crucial contributor to the development of strong tropical cyclones and the largest source of prediction error resulting in great threats to life and property, which can become more threatening…
Recent US major landfalling hurricanes Katrina and Rita and last year's four U.S. landfalling major hurricanes have spawned an abundance of questions concerning the role that global warming might be playing in these events. This idea has…
It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient…
It is well known that rapid changes in tropical cyclone motion occur during interaction with extratropical waves. While the translation speed has received much attention in the published literature, acceleration has not. Using a large data…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…
A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of intensification and associates each…
The proposition that the tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the warm pool, the area enclosed by the 26C SST isotherm, is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…