Related papers: Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone In…
Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
Emanuel's concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters. At the point of maximum wind, E-PI's key equation relates proportionally the centrifugal acceleration…
The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…
The study of the rapid intensification process of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is a current, yet lacking research topic in Mexico, where thermal and dynamic factors at the microscale and mesoscale fundamentally intervene. Due to the little…
Sequential tropical cyclone hazards--two tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall in the same region within a short time--are becoming increasingly likely. This study investigates situational preparedness dynamics for six sequential TC…
A group of algorithms for estimating the current intensity (CI) of tropical cyclones (TCs), which use infrared and microwave sensor-based images as the input of the algorithm because it is more skilled than each algorithm separately, are…
Shan et al. (2023) recently reported significant seasonal advances of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) since the 1980s, and emphasized the data insensitivity of this…
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are counted among the most destructive phenomena that can be found in nature. Every year, globally an average of 90 TCs occur over tropical waters, and global warming is making them stronger, larger and more…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…
Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…
Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…
The formation of Middle Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs) that are responsible for a large portion of annual precipitation and extreme rainfall events over western India is studied using an unsupervised machine learning algorithm and cyclone…
The study explores Hurricane Michael's impact on Hurricane Leslie's trajectory predictability using ECMWF and NCEP ensemble systems. A clustering method focused on tropical cyclones is used to identify potential paths for Leslie: Cluster 1…
We present results from the sixth stage of a project to build a statistical hurricane model. Previous papers have described our modelling of the tracks, genesis, and lysis of hurricanes. In our track model we have so far employed a normal…
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed…
Severe Ionosphere magnetic storms are feared events for integrity and continuity of navigation systems such as EGNOS, the European SBAS (Satellite-Based Augmentation System) complementing GPS and an accurate modelling of this event…
We introduce a new formulation of local clustering coefficient for weighted correlation networks. This new formulation is based upon a definition introduced previously in the neuroscience context and aimed at compensating for spurious…
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather models and long-term climate emulators. An important open question is whether AI models…