Related papers: Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone In…
Minimum central pressure ($P_{min}$) is an integrated measure of the tropical cyclone wind field and is known to be a useful indicator of storm damage potential. A simple model that predicts $P_{min}$ from routinely-estimated quantities,…
Mediterranean cyclones are extreme meteorological events of which much less is known compared to their tropical, oceanic counterparts. The raising interest in such phenomena is due to their impact on a region increasingly more affected by…
Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…
We show that the index in higher-dimensional cluster categories mutates according to a higher-dimensional version of tropical coefficient dynamics.
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
The potential intensity (PI) theory of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a reasonable estimate of the steady-state intensity in a quiescent environment. The theory relies on the symmetric neutrality (SN) assumption, where absolute angular…
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, cause significant property damage and result in fatalities, making it crucial to understand the factors driving extreme TCs. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences TC…
Teleconnections between the tropical and the extratropical climates are often considered as a potential source of long-term predictability at seasonal to decadal time scales in the extratropics. This claim is taken up in the present work by…
The fundamental interaction between tropical cyclones was investigated through a series of water tank experiements by Fujiwhara [20, 21, 22]. However, a complete understanding of tropical cyclones remains an open research challenge although…
Global warming due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases has become a great concern and has been linked to increased hurricane activity associated with higher sea surface temperatures with conflicting views. Our observational…
Tropical cyclones are known to expand to an equilibrium size on the $f$-plane, but the expansion process is not understood. In this study, an analytical model for tropical cyclone size expansion on the $f$-plane is proposed. Conceptually,…
Cyclone rapid intensification is the rapid increase in cyclone wind intensity, exceeding a threshold of 30 knots, within 24 hours. Rapid intensification is considered an extreme event during a cyclone, and its occurrence is relatively rare,…
The prediction of the intensity, location and time of the landfall of a tropical cyclone well advance in time and with high accuracy can reduce human and material loss immensely. In this article, we develop a Long Short-Term memory based…
Mid-Tropospheric Cyclones (MTCs) are moist synoptic systems with distinct mid tropospheric vorticity maxima and weak signatures in the lower troposphere. Composites and statistics of MTCs over the tropics are constructed and compared with…
We prove moderate deviations bounds for the lower tail of the number of odd cycles in a $\calG(n, m)$ random graph. We show that the probability of decreasing triangle density by $t^3$, is $\exp(-\Theta(n^2 t^2))$ whenever $n^{-3/4} \ll t^3…
The risk of extreme storm tides to Bangladesh's low-lying and densely populated coastal regions, already vulnerable to tropical cyclones, remains poorly quantified under a warming climate. Here, using a statistical-physical downscaling…
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused…
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…
Given the destructive impacts of tropical cyclones, it is critical to have a reliable system for cyclone intensity detection. Various techniques are available for this purpose, each with differing levels of accuracy. In this paper, we…