Related papers: March Madness Tournament Predictions Model: A Math…
In a prediction tournament, contestants "forecast" by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events. The scoring system is designed so that (regardless of the unknown true probabilities) more accurate…
Do NFL teams make rational decisions? What factors potentially affect the probability of wining a game in NFL? How can a team come back from a demoralizing interception? In this study we begin by examining the hypothesis of rational…
This paper explores improvements in prediction accuracy and inference capability when allowing for potential correlation in team-level random effects across multiple game-level responses from different assumed distributions. First-order and…
Jointly forecasting trajectories of multiple interacting agents is a core challenge in sports analytics and other domains involving complex group dynamics. Accurate prediction enables realistic simulation and strategic understanding of…
During the last few sports seasons a lot of discussion has been generated for the several, high-profile, "comebacks" that were observed in almost all sports. The Cavaliers won the championship after being down 3-1 in the 2016 NBA finals'…
Prediction is a well-studied machine learning task, and prediction algorithms are core ingredients in online products and services. Despite their centrality in the competition between online companies who offer prediction-based products,…
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the…
Basketball games evolve continuously in space and time as players constantly interact with their teammates, the opposing team, and the ball. However, current analyses of basketball outcomes rely on discretized summaries of the game that…
We propose a multidimensional tensor clustering approach for studying how professional basketball players' shooting patterns vary over court locations and game time. Unlike most existing methods that only study continuous-valued tensors or…
In this manuscript, we concentrate on a specific type of covariates, which we call statistically enhanced, for modeling tennis matches for men at Grand slam tournaments. Our goal is to assess whether these enhanced covariates have the…
Existing approaches for estimating home-field advantage (HFA) include modeling the difference between home and away scores as a function of the difference between home and away team ratings that are treated either as fixed or random…
This paper studies the relationship between basketball teams' four factors and efficiency ratings as defined by Oliver (2004). The paper introduces an equation showing how a team's four factors in conjunction with its field goal and free…
Machine learning, classification and prediction models have applications across a range of fields. Sport analytics is an increasingly popular application, but most existing work is focused on automated refereeing in mainstream sports and…
Balanced knockout tournaments are ubiquitous in sports competitions and are also used in decision-making and elections. The traditional computational question, that asks to compute a draw (optimal draw) that maximizes the winning…
Improvements in tracking technology through optical and computer vision systems have enabled a greater understanding of the movement-based behaviour of multiple agents, including in team sports. In this study, a Multi-Agent Statistically…
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies…
Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…
In this paper, Poisson time series models are considered to describe the number of field goals made by a basketball team or player at both the game (within-season) and the minute (within-game) level. To deal with the existence of temporal…
Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…
Box score statistics in the National Basketball Association are used to measure and evaluate player performance. Some of these statistics are subjective in nature and since box score statistics are recorded by scorekeepers hired by the home…