Related papers: March Madness Tournament Predictions Model: A Math…
In J. Schwenk.(2018) ['What is the Correct Way to Seed a Knockout Tournament?' Retrieved from The American Mathematical Monthly], Schwenk identified a surprising weakness in the standard method of seeding a single elimination (or knockout)…
In this work, we compare three different modeling approaches for the scores of soccer matches with regard to their predictive performances based on all matches from the four previous FIFA World Cups 2002 - 2014: Poisson regression models,…
We extract and use player position time-series data, tagged along with the action types, to build a competent model for representing team tactics behavioral patterns and use this representation to predict the outcome of arbitrary movements.…
The authors give an approximation method for Bayesian inference in arena model, which is focused on paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The approximation method simplifies the inference by reducing parameters and…
The analysis of games and sports as complex systems can give insights into the dynamics of human competition, and has been proven useful in soccer, basketball, and other professional sports. In this paper we present a model for dodgeball, a…
We explore a new way to evaluate generative models using insights from evaluation of competitive games between human players. We show experimentally that tournaments between generators and discriminators provide an effective way to evaluate…
In recent years sports analytics has gotten more and more popular. We propose a model for Rugby data - in particular to model the 2014 Six Nations tournament. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the characteristics that…
Problem definition: Professional sports leagues may be suspended due to various reasons such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic. A critical question the league must address when re-opening is how to appropriately select a subset of the…
NBA team managers and owners try to acquire high-performing players. An important consideration in these decisions is how well the new players will perform in combination with their teammates. Our objective is to identify elite five-person…
In this paper, we propose two novel basketball metrics: ``expected points'' for team-based comparisons and ``expected points above average (EPAA)'' as a player-evaluation tool. Established within the Bayesian hierarchical model framework,…
A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…
The Bradley-Terry model has previously been used in both Bayesian and frequentist interpretations to evaluate the strengths of sports teams based on win-loss game results. It has also been extended to handle additional possible results such…
This work studies the threats of adversarial attack on multivariate probabilistic forecasting models and viable defense mechanisms. Our studies discover a new attack pattern that negatively impact the forecasting of a target time series via…
Evaluating the accuracies of models for match outcome predictions is nice and well but in the end the real proof is in the money to be made by betting. To evaluate the question whether the models developed by us could be used easily to make…
Evaluating the overall ability of players in the National Hockey League (NHL) is a difficult task. Existing methods such as the famous "plus/minus" statistic have many shortcomings. Standard linear regression methods work well when player…
The paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model for simultaneous inference of tournament graphs and informant error. From multiple informant reports or measurement instrument outputs, the model estimates the structure of a criterion (i.e.,…
The progression of a single point in volleyball starts with a serve and then alternates between teams, each team allowed up to three contacts with the ball. Using charted data from the 2022 NCAA Division I women's volleyball season (4,147…
For some time, point-differential has been thought to be a better predictor for future NBA success than pure win-loss record. Most ranking and team performance predictions rely largely on point-differential, often with some normalizations…
Evaluation of students' performance for the completion of courses has been a major problem for both students and faculties during the work-from-home period in this COVID pandemic situation. To this end, this paper presents an in-depth…
Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports…