Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probabilities
Applications
2022-12-19 v1
Abstract
For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies probabilities based on a normal distribution using historical data. The result is that more common point differentials are given appropriate weights. We provide a freely available online tool for implementing our technique.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2212.08116,
title = {Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probabilities},
author = {Ryan Sides and Jane L. Harvill},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2212.08116},
year = {2022}
}
Comments
12 pages, 3 tables, 2 figures