Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball
Methodology
2022-04-26 v1 Applications
Other Statistics
Abstract
Two new Bayesian methods for estimating and predicting in-game home team win probabilities are proposed. The first method has a prior that adjusts as a function of lead differential and time elapsed. The second is an adjusted version of the first, where the adjustment is a linear combination of the Bayesian estimator with a time-weighted pre-game win probability. The proposed methods are compared to existing methods, showing the new methods perform better for both estimation and prediction. The utility is illustrated via an application to the 2016 NCAA Division 1 Championship game.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2204.11777,
title = {Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for college basketball},
author = {Jason Maddox and Ryan Sides and Jane Harvill},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.11777},
year = {2022}
}
Comments
16 pages, 4 figures, 4 tables