Related papers: Heterogeneously structured compartmental models of…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
This article presents a comprehensive study of the continuous McKendrick model, which serves as a foundational framework in population dynamics and epidemiology. The model is formulated through partial differential equations that describe…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
We show that qualitatively different epidemic-like processes from distinct societal domains (finance, social and commercial blockbusters, epidemiology) can be quantitatively understood using the same unifying conceptual framework taking…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
Due to the complexity of the human body, most diseases present a high inter-personal variability in the way they manifest, i.e. in their phenotype, which has important clinical repercussions - as for instance the difficulty in defining…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…
Pandemic management requires that scientists rapidly formulate and analyze epidemiological models in order to forecast the spread of disease and the effects of mitigation strategies. Scientists must modify existing models and create novel…
An important issue in theoretical epidemiology is the epidemic threshold phenomenon, which specify the conditions for an epidemic to grow or die out. In standard (mean-field-like) compartmental models the concept of the basic reproductive…
We propose an epidemic compartment model, which includes mortality caused by the disease, but excludes demographic birth and death processes. Individuals are represented by random walkers, which are in one of the following states…
Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…
Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by $H$ independent…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…