Related papers: FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting u…
A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…
Modeling of transient events in the solar atmosphere requires the confluence of 3 critical elements: (1) model sophistication, (2) data availability, and (3) data assimilation. This white paper describes required advances that will enable…
Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…
With machine learning entering into the awareness of the heliophysics community, solar flare prediction has become a topic of increased interest. Although machine learning models have advanced with each successive publication, the input…
Stellar flares are energetic events occurring in stellar atmospheres. They have been observed on various stars using photometric light curves and spectra. On some cool stars, flares tend to release substantially more energy compared to…
Light echoes of stellar flares provide an intriguing option for exploring protoplanetary disks in young stellar systems. Previous work on light echoes of circumstellar disks made use of delta-function flares for modeling. We present a new…
The accurate forecasting of solar flares is considered a key goal within the solar physics and space weather communities. There is significant potential for flare prediction to be improved by incorporating topological fluxes of magnetogram…
Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying…
Solar and stellar flares are powerful events which produce intense radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. Multiwavelength observations are highly important for understanding the nature of flares, because different flare-related…
In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…
On the basis of the 30-year ago ground-based photometry and the recent Kepler space experiment there have been considered frequencies of occurrence and energetics of the solar-type stellar flares. It was concluded that frequencies of…
In this article, we insist on the importance and the challenges of the prediction of solar eruptive phenomena including flares, coronal mass ejections (CME), and filament eruptions fully based on the ground-based telescopes. It is true that…
A homogeneous search for stellar flares has been performed using every available Kepler light curve. An iterative light curve de-trending approach was used to filter out both astrophysical and systematic variability to detect flares. The…
Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…
Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…
The intersection of Astronomy and AI encounters significant challenges related to issues such as noisy backgrounds, lower resolution (LR), and the intricate process of filtering and archiving images from advanced telescopes like the James…
Current post-processing techniques for the correction of atmospheric seeing in solar observations -- such as Speckle interferometry and Phase Diversity methods -- have limitations when it comes to their reconstructive capabilities of solar…
AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attivit\`a di Studio per la…
Data assimilation techniques, developed in the last two decades mainly for weather prediction, produce better forecasts by taking advantage of both theoretical/numerical models and real-time observations. In this paper, we explore the…