Related papers: FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting u…
Ultra-precise light curves from Kepler provide the best opportunity to determine rates and statistical properties of stellar flares. From 11 months of data on the active M4 dwarf, GJ 1243, we have built the largest catalog of flares for a…
Due to their short timescale, stellar flares are a challenging target for the most modern synoptic sky surveys. The upcoming Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), a project designed to collect more data than any precursor…
Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…
Starspots and flares are indicators of stellar magnetic activity that can both be studied in greater detail by utilizing the long-term, space-based archive of the Kepler satellite. Here, we aim to investigate a subset of the Kepler archive…
We present the first derivation of a stellar flare temperature profile from single-band photometry. Stellar flare DWF030225.574-545707.45129 was detected in 2015 by the Dark Energy Camera as part of the Deeper, Wider, Faster Programme. The…
As was discovered with other wide field, precise imagers, the stable photometry necessary for the microlensing surveys is well-suited to general stellar astrophysics, including stellar flares, which are important for understanding stellar…
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
In this work, we introduce FLAME, a family of extremely lightweight and capable Time Series Foundation Models, which support both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting via generative probabilistic modeling, thus ensuring both…
We describe a new tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of some sunspot group properties. Assuming that the flare frequency follows the Poisson statistics, this tool uses a database containing the morphological…
Solar flares commonly have a hot onset precursor event" (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. Detecting this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission…
A demonstrated failure mode for operational solar flare forecasting is the inability to forecast flares that occur near, or just beyond, the solar limb. To address this shortcoming, we develop a "4pi" full-heliosphere event forecasting…
The statistical characteristic of stellar flares at optical bands has received an extensive study, but it remains to be studied at soft X-ray bands, in particular for solar-type stars. Here, we present a statistical study of soft X-ray…
The most powerful explosions on the Sun [...] drive the most severe space-weather storms. Proxy records of flare energies based on SEPs in principle may offer the longest time base to study infrequent large events. We conclude that one…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Flare research is becoming a burgeoning realm in the study of stellar activity due to the launch of {\it Kepler} in 2009. {\it Kepler} provides data with two time resolutions, i.e., the long-cadence (LC) data with a time resolution of 30…
Time-domain surveys have advanced astronomical research by revealing diverse variable phenomena, from stellar flares to transient events. The scale and complexity of survey data, along with the demand for rapid classification, present…
One of the defining characteristics of a solar flare is the impulsive formation of very high temperature plasma. The properties of the thermal emission are not well understood, however, and the analysis of solar flare observations is often…
Over the past years, thousands of stellar flares have been detected by harvesting data from large photometric surveys. These detections, however, do not account for potential sources of contamination such as background stars appearing in…