Related papers: FLARE: A Framework for Stellar Flare Forecasting u…
We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our…
We present the results of a search for stellar flares from stars neighbouring the target sources in the Kepler short cadence data. These flares have been discarded as contaminants in previous surveys and therefore provide an unexplored…
Convection and turbulence in stellar atmospheres have a significant effect on the emergent flux from late-type stars. The theoretical advancements in convection modelling over recent years have proved challenging for the observers to obtain…
We present a new method for estimating the total energy radiated by stellar flares in broad-band continua, which assumes a constant emitting area but incorporates a time-dependent temperature evolution. This physically motivated approach…
The EU funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from Jan 2015 until Feb 2018. FLARECAST had a R2O focus, and introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of…
We apply multi-algorithm machine learning models to TESS 2-minute survey data from Sectors 1-72 to identify stellar flares. Models trained with Deep Neural Network, Random Forest, and XGBoost algorithms, respectively, utilized four flare…
Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…
Understanding solar flares is critical for predicting space weather, as their activity shapes how the Sun influences Earth and its environment. The development of reliable forecasting methodologies of these events depends on robust flare…
Automated forecasts serve important role in space weather science, by providing statistical insights to flare-trigger mechanisms, and by enabling tailor-made forecasts and high-frequency forecasts. Only by realtime forecast we can…
The habitability of planets is closely connected with the stellar activity, mainly the frequency of flares and the distribution of flare energy. Kepler and TESS find many flaring stars are detected via precise time-domain photometric data,…
Flares, sometimes accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are the result of sudden changes in the magnetic field of stars with high energy release through magnetic reconnection, which can be observed across a wide range of the…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of stellar space weather and can strongly influence the habitability of exoplanets. However, compared to the frequent occurrence of white-light flares, confirmed stellar CMEs remain extremely…
This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…
Solar flares are transient yet dramatic events in the atmosphere of the Sun, during which a vast amount of magnetic energy is liberated. This energy is subsequently transported through the solar atmosphere or into the heliosphere, and…
Operational flare forecasting aims at providing predictions that can be used to make decisions, typically at a daily scale, about the space weather impacts of flare occurrence. This study shows that video-based deep learning can be used for…
The Sun's proximity offers us a unique opportunity to study in detail the physical processes on a star's surface; however, the highly dynamic nature of the stellar surface -- in particular, energetic eruptions such as flares and coronal…
Stellar variability is a limiting factor for planet detection and characterization, particularly around active M-type stars. Here we revisit one of the most active stars from the Kepler mission, the M4 star GJ 1243, and use a sample of 414…
Solar flares are a primary driver of space weather, and forecasting their occurrence remains a significant challenge. This paper presents a novel flare prediction model based on topologically derived photospheric magnetic parameters. We…
We analyze physical characteristics of late-type stars wherein the Kepler mission registered superflares. We use the revised stellar fundamental parameters, i.e. effective temperatures Teff and surface gravitational accelerations log g,…
We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has…