Related papers: Long-term predictive models for mosquito borne dis…
The human microbiome is a complex ecological system, and describing its structure and function under different environmental conditions is important from both basic scientific and medical perspectives. Viewed through a biostatistical lens,…
Ross-Macdonald models are the building blocks of most vector-borne disease models. Even for the same disease, different authors use different model formulations, but a study of the dynamical consequences of assuming different hypotheses is…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
Data-driven model predictive control has two key advantages over model-free methods: a potential for improved sample efficiency through model learning, and better performance as computational budget for planning increases. However, it is…
In this paper we propose some mathematical models for the transmission of dengue using a system of reaction-diffusion equations. The mosquitoes are divided into infected, uninfected and aquatic subpopulations, while the humans, which are…
Analysis of mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology often focuses on asymptotic dynamics, such as stable equilibria and periodic orbits. However, many systems exhibit long transient behaviors where certain aspects of the dynamics…
A significant challenge in seasonal climate prediction is whether a prediction can beat climatology. We hereby present results from two data-driven models - a convolutional (CNN) and a recurrent (RNN) neural network - that predict 2 m…
Airborne pathogen transmission mechanisms play a key role in the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. In this work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach to model and statistically characterize airborne…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. It has been observed that its incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and other abiotic factors like rainfall and humidity. In this work we compare the…
In contrast to the many theoretical studies on the transmission of human-mosquitoes malaria infection, few studies have considered a multiple structure model formulations including (i) the chronological age of humans and mosquitoes…
We define a model for the joint distribution of multiple continuous latent variables which includes a model for how their correlations depend on explanatory variables. This is motivated by and applied to social scientific research questions…
Background: Although the outbreak of human monkeypox (mpox) caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) has slowed down around the world, little is known about the short-term dynamics of this disease. This limited information highlights the…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it…
Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of…
Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is…
Drought is a serious natural disaster that has a long duration and a wide range of influence. To decrease the drought-caused losses, drought prediction is the basis of making the corresponding drought prevention and disaster reduction…
This article explores mathematical models for understanding the evolution of contagious diseases. The most widely known set of models are the compartmental ones, which are based on a set of differential equations. But these are not the only…
Multiple chronic conditions (MCC) are one of the biggest challenges of modern times. The evolution of MCC follows a complex stochastic process that is influenced by a variety of risk factors, ranging from pre-existing conditions to…
Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed…