Related papers: Long-term predictive models for mosquito borne dis…
The spread of PM2.5 pollutants that endanger health is difficult to predict because it involves many atmospheric variables. These micron particles can spread rapidly from their source to residential areas, increasing the risk of respiratory…
Dengue remains a major global public health concern due to its high mortality and economic burden. Mathematical modeling is essential to understand its transmission mechanisms and for evaluating intervention strategies. In this paper, we…
A deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equation model for mosquito dynamics in which the mosquitoes can quest for blood either within a human population or within non-human/vertebrate populations is derived and studied. The model…
West Nile virus (WNV) is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne arbovirus circulating between mosquitoes of the genus Culex and birds, with a potential spillover to humans and other mammals. Recent trends in climatic change, characterized by…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
We developed an integrated recurrent neural network and nonlinear regression spatio-temporal model for vector-borne disease evolution. We take into account climate data and seasonality as external factors that correlate with disease…
This paper introduces a data-driven time embedding method for modeling long-range seasonal dependencies in spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. The proposed approach employs Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to extract temporal modes directly…
More than half of the world's population is exposed to the risk of mosquito-borne diseases, which leads to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths every year. Analyzing this type of data is often complex and poses several…
Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of…
Recent advances in diffusion models have demonstrated their strong capabilities in generating high-fidelity samples from complex distributions through an iterative refinement process. Despite the empirical success of diffusion models in…
Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further ourunderstanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission-even at a very local…
Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…
As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae.…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…
Objective: To develop machine learning models that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases per day given the last 14 days of environmental and mobility data. Approach: COVID-19 data from four counties around Toronto, Ontario, were used.…
A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…
Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…
The host's odor serves as a critical biological tracking signal in the host-seeking process of mosquitoes, and its heterogeneity significantly influences the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. In this study, we propose a…
Malaria control strategies aiming at reducing disease transmission intensity may impact both oocyst intensity and infection prevalence in the mosquito vector. Thus far, mathematical models failed to identify a clear relationship between…
This paper introduces a Multi-modal Diffusion model for Motion Prediction (MDMP) that integrates and synchronizes skeletal data and textual descriptions of actions to generate refined long-term motion predictions with quantifiable…