Related papers: Long-term predictive models for mosquito borne dis…
The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal…
Dengue continues to pose a major global threat, infecting nearly 390 million people annually. Recognizing the pivotal role of vector competence (vc), recent research focuses on mosquito parameters to inform transmission modeling and vector…
Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for the majority of malaria morbidity and mortality each year. Malaria transmission rates vary by location and time of year due to climate and environmental conditions. We show the impact of these…
Dengue is a vector borne disease transmitted to humans by {\it{Aedes Aegypti}} mosquitoes carrying Dengue virus of different serotypes. Primarily an urban epidemic, Dengue exhibits complex spatial and temporal dynamics, influenced by many…
Epidemiological forecasting from surveillance data is a hard problem and hybridizing mechanistic compartmental models with neural models is a natural direction. The mechanistic structure helps keep trajectories epidemiologically plausible,…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of epidemic incidences is critical for public health preparedness, yet it remains a challenging task due to complex nonlinear temporal dependencies and heterogeneous spatial interactions. Often, point…
Appropriate greenhouse temperature should be maintained to ensure crop production while minimizing energy consumption. Even though weather forecasts could provide a certain amount of information to improve control performance, it is not…
Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…
It is estimated that around 80\% of the world's population live in areas susceptible to at-least one major vector borne disease, and approximately 20% of global communicable diseases are spread by mosquitoes. Furthermore, the outbreaks of…
The global population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika is expanding. Infectious disease models commonly incorporate environmental measures like temperature and precipitation. Given…
Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Non-communicable disease is the leading cause of death, emphasizing the need for accurate prediction of disease progression and informed clinical decision-making. Machine learning (ML) models have shown promise in this domain by capturing…
The co-occurrence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), or multimorbidity, in an individual can reduce their lifespan and severely impact their quality of life. Exploring the longitudinal patterns, e.g. clusters, of disease accrual can…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…
Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in…
Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at…