Related papers: Forecasting Political Stability in GCC Countries
As digital government platforms become central to public service delivery, understanding citizen assessment is crucial for enhancing usability, trust, and inclusivity. This study investigates citizen satisfaction with the e-government…
There is growing concern that over the past decade, industrialized democratic nations are becoming increasingly politically polarized. Indeed, elections in the US, UK, France, and Germany have all seen tightly won races, with notable…
Saudi Arabia faced a swift economic growth and societal transformation under Vision 2030. This offers a unique opportunity to track emerging trends in the region, which will ultimately pave the way for new business and investment…
Policy choices in the wake of recent mass protests in Egypt will determine the likelihood of civil war in the short run and the prospects for democracy in the long run. Economic conditions can be improved by international action to reduce…
The impact of predictive algorithms on people's lives and livelihoods has been noted in medicine, criminal justice, finance, hiring and admissions. Most of these algorithms are developed using data and human capital from highly developed…
This paper tests the feasibility and estimates the cost of climate control through economic policies. It provides a toolbox for a statistical historical assessment of a Stochastic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy, and its use in…
Climate change is becoming a widely recognized risk factor of farmer-herder conflict in Africa. Using an 8 year dataset (Jan 2015 to Sep 2022) of detailed weather and terrain data across four African nations, we apply statistical and…
Construction industries in developing countries face systemic challenges such as chronic project delays, cost overruns, and regulatory inefficiencies. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD) modeling framework for analyzing policy and…
Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here…
As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into global software systems, ensuring equitable safety guardrails is a critical requirement. Current fairness evaluations predominantly measure bias observationally, a methodology confounded…
This paper presents a methodological approach to financial time series analysis by combining causal discovery and uncertainty-aware forecasting. As a case study, we focus on four key U.S. macroeconomic indicators -- GDP, economic growth,…
The current international landscape is turbulent and unstable, with frequent outbreaks of geopolitical conflicts worldwide. Geopolitical risk has emerged as a significant threat to regional and global peace, stability, and economic…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
This working paper uses a Dynamic Factor Model ('the model') to identify underlying factors contributing to the debt-induced economic crisis in the People's Democratic Republic of Laos ('Laos'). The analysis aims to use the latent…
Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…
In the past decades, clean and renewable energy has gained increasing attention due to a global effort on carbon footprint reduction. In particular, Saudi Arabia is gradually shifting its energy portfolio from an exclusive use of oil to a…
This study explores the use of AI-driven sentiment analysis as a novel tool for forecasting election outcomes, focusing on Mauritius' 2024 elections. In the absence of reliable polling data, we analyze media sentiment toward two main…
Corporate insolvency can have a devastating effect on the economy. With an increasing number of companies making expansion overseas to capitalize on foreign resources, a multinational corporate bankruptcy can disrupt the world's financial…
The stability analysis of socioeconomic systems has been centered on answering whether small perturbations when a system is in a given quantitative state will push the system permanently to a different quantitative state. However, typically…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…