Related papers: Forecasting Political Stability in GCC Countries
Machine learning emulators have shown extraordinary skill in forecasting atmospheric states, and their application to global ocean dynamics offers similar promise. Here, we adapt the GraphCast architecture into a dedicated ocean-only…
While cyber security has become a prominent concept of emerging information governance, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been dealing with severe threats to individual and organizational IT systems for a long time. These risks have recently…
The potential for advances in information-age technologies to undermine nuclear deterrence and influence the potential for nuclear escalation represents a critical question for international politics. One challenge is that uncertainty about…
This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing wildfire risk in Iran, focusing on the interplay between climatic conditions and human activities. Utilizing advanced remote sensing, geospatial information system (GIS)…
Climate change affects ocean temperature, salinity and sea level, impacting monsoons and ocean productivity. Future projections by Global Climate Models based on shared socioeconomic pathways from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…
There is great uncertainty about future climate conditions and the appropriate policies for managing interactions between the climate and the economy. We develop a multidimensional computational model to examine how uncertainties and risks…
This study employs Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast key performance indicators (KPIs), Occupancy (OCC), Average Daily Rate (ADR), and Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR), across five major cities: Manchester, Amsterdam,…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
We present statistical techniques for analyzing global positioning system (GPS) data in order to understand, communicate about, and prevent patterns of violence. In this pilot study, participants in Nairobi, Kenya were asked to rate their…
Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth…
When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…
In this paper, gradient boosting is used to forecast the Q(.95) values of air temperature and the Steadman Heat Index. Paris, France during late the spring and summer months is the major focus. Predictors and responses are drawn from the…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying machine learning models in safety-critical physical systems, yet classical Bayesian approaches incur substantial computational overhead. We establish a formal connection between…
Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of external fields produced by the existence of global alliances. The model rests on the natural model of coalition…
Long-term stability and physical consistency are critical properties for AI-based weather models if they are going to be used for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts or beyond, e.g., climate change projection. However, current AI-based…
This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on…
Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the…
We assess the broad repercussions of Yemen's 2011 revolution and subsequent civil war on its macroeconomic trajectories, human development, and quality of governance by constructing counterfactual benchmarks using a balanced panel of 37…
Poverty is a serious issue that harms humanity progression. The simplest solution is to use one-shirt-size policy to alleviate it. Nevertheless, each region has its unique issues, which require a unique solution to solve them. In the aspect…
This study aims to use simultaneous quantile regression (SQR) to examine the impact of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty including global pandemic, geopolitical risk on the futures returns of crude oil (ROC). The data for this study…