Related papers: Forecasting Political Stability in GCC Countries
The informatization practice of countries all over the world has shown that the level of a government's informatization is one main factor that can affect its international competitive power. At present, e-government construction is…
Even at the beginning of 2008, the economic recession of 2008/09 was not being predicted. The failure to predict recessions is a persistent theme in economic forecasting. The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) provides data on…
Social media has had a significant impact on our individual lives, including our behavior regarding the purchasing of daily products. This study investigates the factors influencing Omani nationals' intentions to obtain products via social…
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
On December 7, 2020, Ghanaians participated in the polls to determine their president for the next four years. To gain insights from this presidential election, we conducted stance analysis (which is not always equivalent to sentiment…
In this paper, we explore the economic, institutional, and political/governmental factors in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in the emerging twenty-four Asian economies. To examine the significant determinants of FDI, the…
In this study, we introduce an analytics framework, the Bank Risk Interlinkage with Dynamic Graph and Event Simulations (BRIDGES), to capture the systemic risks associated with the growing economic influence of the BRICS nations. This…
Many critical policy decisions, from strategic investments to the allocation of humanitarian aid, rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty. Yet many poverty maps are out of date or exist only at very coarse…
Rankings are ubiquitous across many applications, from search engines to hiring committees. In practice, many rankings are derived from the output of predictors. However, when predictors trained for classification tasks have intrinsic…
Emerging economies, particularly the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and T\"urkiye), are gaining influence in global stock markets, although they remain susceptible to the economic conditions of developed countries like the G7…
Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…
In this article, we consider machine learning algorithms to accurately predict two variables associated with the $Q$-voter model in complex networks, i.e., (i) the consensus time and (ii) the frequency of opinion changes. Leveraging nine…
The study of US-China relations has always been a crucial topic in our economic development [4][5][7], and the US presidential election plays an integral role in shaping these relations. The presidential election is held every four years,…
Recent advances in generative image models have enabled the creation of highly realistic political deepfakes, posing risks to information integrity, public trust, and democratic processes. While automated deepfake detectors are increasingly…
Machine-learned systems are in widespread use for making decisions about humans, and it is important that they are fair, i.e., not biased against individuals based on sensitive attributes. We present a general framework of runtime…
Human flourishing is often severely limited by persistent violence. Quantitative conflict research has found common temporal and other statistical patterns in warfare, but very little is understood about its general spatial patterns. While…
Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of a potential customer. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a…
The recent global outbreak of covid-19 is affecting many countries around the world. Due to the growing number of newly infected individuals and the health-care system bottlenecks, it will be useful to predict the upcoming number of…
This paper proposes a novel method for determining the number of factors in linear factor models under stability considerations. An instability measure is proposed based on the principal angle between the estimated loading spaces obtained…
The main purpose of this research is to determine the influence of culture on e-government (electronic government) acceptance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Citizens' transactional interactions (electronic transactions or…