Related papers: Forecasting Political Stability in GCC Countries
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations outlines 17 goals as global challenges for countries of the world to address in their development. However, the progress of countries towards these goals has been much slower…
Algorithmic stability is a central concept in statistics and learning theory that measures how sensitive an algorithm's output is to small changes in the training data. Stability plays a crucial role in understanding generalization,…
We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILC)--unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state's established laws and conventions--for mid-2014 using predictions generated from an innovative ensemble model that is composed of…
As the world marked the midterm of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, many countries are still struggling to monitor their climate and disaster risk because of the expensive large-scale survey of the distribution of…
Qatar expects more than a million visitors during the 2022 World Cup, which will pose significant challenges. The high number of people will likely cause a rise in road traffic congestion, vehicle crashes, injuries and deaths. To tackle…
Credit ratings are becoming one of the primary references for financial institutions of the country to assess credit risk in order to accurately predict the likelihood of business failure of an individual or an enterprise. Financial…
High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest…
Accurately forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential for designing climate strategies that balance economic growth with environmental objectives. Elevated CPU levels can delay regulatory implementation, hinder investment in…
This paper introduces a novel visual mapping methodology for assessing strategic alignment in national artificial intelligence policies. The proliferation of AI strategies across countries has created an urgent need for analytical…
This study constructs a fully data-driven and reproducible Southeast Asia Influence Index (SAII v3) to reduce bias from expert scoring and subjective weighting while mapping hierarchical power structures across the eleven ASEAN nations. We…
Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) overfit in high dimensional settings, while threshold VARs…
Fast and accurate hourly forecasts of wind speed and power are crucial in quantifying and planning the energy budget in the electric grid. Modeling wind at a high resolution brings forth considerable challenges given its turbulent and…
Credit scoring is an increasingly central and contested domain of data and AI governance, frequently framed as a neutral and objective method of assessing risk across diverse economic and political contexts. Based on a nine-month…
The governance of the political and economic world order builds on a complex architecture of international treaties at various geographical scales. In a historical phase of high institutional turbulence, assessing the stability of such…
The sustainability of the academic ecosystem relies on researcher demographics and gender balance, yet assessing these dynamics in a timely manner for policy is challenging. Here, we propose a researcher population pyramid framework for…
Sovereign credit ratings summarize the creditworthiness of countries. These ratings have a large influence on the economy and the yields at which governments can issue new debt. This paper investigates the use of a Multilayer Perceptron…
Information transparency is a major building block of responsible governments. We explored factors influencing the information transparency of 117 world nations. After controlling for the effects of confounding variables of wealth (GDP per…
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations outlines 17 goals for countries of the world to address global challenges in their development. However, the progress of countries towards these goal has been slower than…
Nowadays, different places have different region stability, which is influenced by lots of factors. In this paper ,it is aimed to analyze the influence of climate change on regional stability. several factors that may influence the region…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…