Related papers: Forecasting Political Stability in GCC Countries
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
Peacefulness is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams…
Research on bias in machine learning algorithms has generally been concerned with the impact of bias on predictive accuracy. We believe that there are other factors that should also play a role in the evaluation of bias. One such factor is…
This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that…
Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The…
This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six…
This paper constructs a global economic policy uncertainty index through the principal component analysis of the economic policy uncertainty indices for twenty primary economies around the world. We find that the PCA-based global economic…
This article discusses the use of dynamic factor models in macroeconomic forecasting, with a focus on the Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model (FECM). The FECM combines the advantages of cointegration and dynamic factor models, providing…
The political stance prediction for news articles has been widely studied to mitigate the echo chamber effect -- people fall into their thoughts and reinforce their pre-existing beliefs. The previous works for the political stance problem…
COVID-19 has infected more than 68 million people worldwide since it was first detected about a year ago. Machine learning time series models have been implemented to forecast COVID-19 infections. In this paper, we develop time series…
Understanding and mitigating political bias in online social media platforms are crucial tasks to combat misinformation and echo chamber effects. However, characterizing political bias temporally using computational methods presents…
Geography, including climatic factors, have long been considered potentially important elements in shaping socio-economic activities, alongside other determinants, such as institutions. Here we demonstrate that geography and climate…
This paper contributes to the issue of eGovernment implementation in Saudi Arabia by discussing the current situation of ministry websites. It evaluates the rate of web development progress of vital government websites in Saudi Arabia using…
Numerical N-body simulations are commonly used to explore stability regions around exoplanets, offering insights into the possible existence of satellites and ring systems. This study aims to utilize Machine Learning (ML) techniques to…
In accordance with "Democracy's Effect on Development: More Questions than Answers", we seek to carry out a study in following the description in the 'Questions for Further Study.' To that end, we studied 33 countries in the Sub-Saharan…
Since the start of its national renaissance in 1970, the Sultanate of Oman (Oman) has gone over a major development in several areas, such as education, infrastructure, and urbanization. This has been powered by the revenues from exporting…
This paper aims to examine whether the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and uncertainty changes have different impacts on crude oil futures volatility. We establish single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS…
This paper studies whether a small set of dominant countries can account for most of the dynamics of regional oil demand and improve forecasting performance. We focus on dominant drivers within the OECD and a broad GVAR sample covering over…
This paper aims to identify the robust determinants of corruption after integrating out the effects of spatial spillovers in corruption levels between countries. In other words, we want to specify which variables play the most critical role…
International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns…