Related papers: On the predictability of springtime ozone depletio…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate…
Understanding the lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is critical for predictions regarding future climate changes. A simple mass conservation analysis presented here generates tight estimations for the atmosphere's retention time constant.…
Collecting time series data spatially distributed in many locations is often important for analyzing climate change and its impacts on ecosystems. However, comprehensive spatial data collection is not always feasible, requiring us to…
Mexico City tracks ground-level ozone levels to assess compliance with national ambient air quality standards and to prevent environmental health emergencies. Ozone levels show distinct daily patterns, within the city, and over the course…
In the conventional habitable zone (HZ) concept, a CO$_{2}$-H$_2$O greenhouse maintains surface liquid water. Through the water-mediated carbonate-silicate weathering cycle, atmospheric CO$_{2}$ partial pressure (pCO$_{2}$) responds to…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…
We report on a set of laboratory experiments to investigate the effect of Arctic warming on the amplitude and drift speed of the mid-latitude jet stream. Our results show that a progressive decrease of the meridional temperature difference…
The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…
Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
The polar vortices play a crucial role in the formation of the ozone hole and can cause severe weather anomalies. Their boundaries, known as the vortex `edges', are typically identified via methods that are either frame-dependent or return…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…
The Eocene-Oligocene transition marks a watershed point of earth's climate history. The climate shifts from a greenhouse state to an icehouse state in which Antarctica glaciated for the first time and periodic dynamics arise which are still…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…