Related papers: On the predictability of springtime ozone depletio…
The substantial threat of concurrent air pollutants to public health is increasingly severe under climate change. To identify the common drivers and extent of spatio-temporal similarity of PM2.5 and ozone, this paper proposed a log…
Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…
The correlation dimension and K2-entropy are estimated from meteorological time- series. The results lead us to claim that seasonal variability of weather is under influence of low dimensional dynamics, whereas changes of weather from day…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…
Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are known to have a warm and isotopically enriched bias over Antarctica. We test here the hypothesis that these biases are partly consequences of a too diffusive advection. Exploiting the…
This paper reports observations of regional and global upper stratosphere temperature (UST) and surface temperature, as well as various climate drivers including greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone, aerosols, solar variability, snow cover…
We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
The oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere 2.3 billion years ago, which on exoplanets is expected to be most detectable via the UV ozone feature at $\sim$0.25 $\mu$m, is often regarded as a sign of the emergence of photosynthetic life. On…
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…
Multi-year-to-decadal climate prediction is a key tool in understanding the range of potential regional and global climate futures. Here, we present a framework that combines machine learning and analog forecasting for predictions on these…
Space weather in exoplanetary systems, driven by transient stellar emissions such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and stellar proton events, can significantly influence planetary habitability and the long-term evolution of atmospheres.…
Statistical analyses and descriptive characterizations are sometimes assumed to be offering information on time series forecastability. Despite the scientific interest suggested by such assumptions, the relationships between descriptive…
This study investigates the catalytic degradation of ground-level ozone on low-index stoichiometric and reduced CeO$_2$ surfaces using first-principles calculations. The presence of oxygen vacancies on the surface enhances the interaction…
We have modeled atmospheric effects, especially ozone depletion, due to a solar proton event which probably accompanied the extreme magnetic storm of 1-2 September 1859. We use an inferred proton fluence for this event as estimated from…
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
The El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Ni\~no describes a state in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific increase…