Related papers: Risk measures on incomplete markets: a new non-sol…
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio…
We introduce a framework for quantifying propagation of uncertainty arising in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we define dynamic uncertainty sets designed explicitly for discrete stochastic processes over a finite time horizon. These…
We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk…
We study the problem of excess risk evaluation for empirical risk minimization (ERM) under convex losses. We show that by leveraging the idea of wild refitting, one can upper bound the excess risk through the so-called "wild optimism,"…
We study the concept of financial bubble in a market model endowed with a set of probability measures, typically mutually singular to each other. In this setting we introduce the notions of robust bubble and robust fundamental value in a…
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability…
The Expected Shortfall (ES) is one of the most important regulatory risk measures in finance, insurance, and statistics, which has recently been characterized via sets of axioms from perspectives of portfolio risk management and statistics.…
SOFR derivatives market remains illiquid and incomplete so it is not amenable to classical risk-neutral term structure models which are based on the assumption of perfect liquidity and completeness. This paper develops a statistical SOFR…
In the paper we develop mathematical tools of quantile hedging in incomplete market. Those could be used for two significant applications: o calculating the \textbf{optimal capital requirement imposed by Solvency II} (Directive 2009/138/EC…
This paper is on developing stochastic analysis simultaneously under a general family of probability measures that are not dominated by a single probability measure. The interest in this question originates from the probabilistic…
Recently, financial industry and regulators have enhanced the debate on the good properties of a risk measure. A fundamental issue is the evaluation of the quality of a risk estimation. On the one hand, a backtesting procedure is desirable…
Under general multivariate regular variation conditions, the extreme Value-at-Risk of a portfolio can be expressed as an integral of a known kernel with respect to a generally unknown spectral measure supported on the unit simplex. The…
We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability measures hidden behind a given set of…
We revisit the recently introduced concept of return risk measures (RRMs) and extend it by incorporating risk management via multiple so-called eligible assets. The resulting new class of risk measures, termed multi-asset return risk…
We study a continuous-time financial market with continuous price processes under model uncertainty, modeled via a family $\mathcal{P}$ of possible physical measures. A robust notion ${\rm NA}_{1}(\mathcal{P})$ of no-arbitrage of the first…
We develop a framework for regularly varying measures on complete separable metric spaces $\mathbb{S}$ with a closed cone $\mathbb{C}$ removed, extending material in Hult & Lindskog (2006), Das, Mitra & Resnick (2013). Our framework…
In this paper we study the thermodynamic formalism of strongly transitive endomorphisms $f$, focusing on the set all expanding measures. In case $f$ is a non-flat $C^{1+}$ map defined on a Riemannian manifold, these are invariant…
In this paper, we study an extension of the CPE conjecture to manifolds $M$ which support a structure relating curvature to the geometry of a smooth map $\varphi : M \to N$. The resulting system, denoted by $(\varphi-\mathrm{CPE})$, is…
The family of admissible positions in a transaction costs model is a random closed set, which is convex in case of proportional transaction costs. However, the convexity fails, e.g. in case of fixed transaction costs or when only a finite…
When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the…