Related papers: A Coupled Two-Tier Mathematical Transmission Model…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future. These "severity rates" can change over the course of an epidemic in response to shifting conditions…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
We consider the qualitative behavior of a mathematical model for transmission dynamics with two nonlinear stages of contagion. The proposed model is inspired by phenomena occurring in epidemiology (spread of infectious diseases) or social…
In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has…
The dynamics of the spread of contagions such as viruses, infectious diseases or even rumors/opinions over contact networks (graphs) have effectively been captured by the well known \textit{Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible} ($SIS$) epidemic…
Global transport and communication networks enable information, ideas and infectious diseases now to spread at speeds far beyond what has historically been possible. To effectively monitor, design, or intervene in such epidemic-like…
In this study, we propose a novel model describing the coevolution between hosts and pathogens, based on a non-local partial differential equation formalism for populations structured by phenotypic traits. Our objective with this model is…
Several pathogens use evolvability as a survival strategy against acquired immunity of the host. Despite their high variability in time, some of them exhibit quite low variability within the population at any given time, a somehow…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
Biological systems are modular, and this modularity affects the evolution of biological systems over time and in different environments. We here develop a theory for the dynamics of evolution in a rugged, modular fitness landscape. We show…
Spatial extent is a complicating factor in mathematical biology. The possibility that an action at point A cannot immediately affect what happens at point B creates the opportunity for spatial nonuniformity. This nonuniformity must change…
Time varying susceptibility of host at individual level due to waning and boosting immunity is known to induce rich long-term behavior of disease transmission dynamics. Meanwhile, the impact of the time varying heterogeneity of host…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
We present an SI epidemic model whereby a continuous variable captures variability in proliferative potential and resistance to infection among susceptibles. The occurrence of heritable, spontaneous changes in these phenotype and the…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…