Related papers: A Coupled Two-Tier Mathematical Transmission Model…

For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…

A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…

Mechanisms of immunity, and of the host-pathogen interactions in general are among the most fundamental problems of medicine, ecology, and evolution studies. Here, we present a microscopic, protein-level, sequence-based model of immune…

We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…

While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…

We investigate the spread of an infection or other malfunction of cascading nature when a system component can recover only if it remains reachable from a functioning central component. We consider the susceptible-infected-susceptible…

We study the dynamics of secondary infections on networks, in which only the individuals currently carrying a certain primary infection are susceptible to the secondary infection. In the limit of large sparse networks, the model is mapped…

This paper analyzes a simplified model of viral infection and evolution using the 'grand canonical ensemble' and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to enumerate all possible viruses and to derive thermodynamic…

The World Health Organization describes zoonotic diseases as a major pandemic threat, and modeling the behavior of such diseases is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from…

Mathematical modelling of epidemiological and coevolutionary dynamics is widely being used to improve disease management strategies of infectious diseases. Many diseases present some form of intra-host quiescent stage, also known as covert…

The network virus propagation is influenced by various factors, and some of them are neglected in most of the existed models in the literature. In this paper, we study the network virus propagation based on the the epidemiological…

Traditional studies about disease dynamics have focused on global stability issues, due to their epidemiological importance. We study a classical SIR-SI model for arboviruses in two different directions: we begin by describing an…

Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…

We present a methodology providing a one-directional link from within-host individual heterogeneity to population-level disease transmission dynamics. The methodology works in several steps. A within-host model is investigated numerically…

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…

Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…

We propose a hybrid dynamical system approach to model the evolution of a pathogen that experiences different selective pressures according to a stochastic process. In every environment, the evolution of the pathogen is described by a…

The long-term evolution of epidemic processes depends crucially on the structure of contact networks. As empirical evidence indicates that human populations exhibit strong community organization, we investigate here how such mesoscopic…

Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…

This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…