English

How complex behavioural contagion can prevent infectious diseases from becoming endemic

Populations and Evolution 2026-04-14 v1

Abstract

Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for improving understanding of infectious disease dynamics and developing policy-relevant modelling tools. An important aspect of behavioural dynamics is social contagion, where people tend to adopt behaviours exhibited by others around them. In a simple behavioural contagion model, the behaviour uptake rate increases linearly with the number of contacts who have adopted a given behaviour. Here, we explore an epidemic model with complex behavioural contagion, where the behaviour uptake rate is a nonlinear function of the number of behaving contacts. We identify key bifurcation parameters of the model, which include the basic reproduction number R0R_0, the strength of the behavioural effect on disease transmission, and the speed of behaviour uptake relative to behaviour abandonment. We show that, in some regions of parameter space, the model has multiple disease-free equilibria. In this situation, the occurrence of an epidemic in a population with an initially low level of behaviour practice can trigger a self-sustaining increase in behaviour, which then causes the disease to be eliminated. In some cases, while moderate values of R0R_0 lead to the disease becoming endemic, higher values of R0R_0 may lead to behaviour-driven disease elimination. We demonstrate that this mechanism of epidemic-triggered uptake of behaviour leading to disease elimination can occur in the presence and absence of temporary post-infection immunity.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.10995,
  title  = {How complex behavioural contagion can prevent infectious diseases from becoming endemic},
  author = {Michael J. Plank and Matt Ryan and Lloyd Chapman and Roslyn I. Hickson and Thomas House and Emma McBryde and James M. McCaw},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.10995},
  year   = {2026}
}