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Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Sabrina Vettori , Raphaël Huser , Johan Segers , Marc G. Genton

Causal discovery in time series is a rapidly evolving field with a wide variety of applications in other areas such as climate science and neuroscience. Traditional approaches assume a stationary causal graph, which can be adapted to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-26 Carles Balsells-Rodas , Yixin Wang , Pedro A. M. Mediano , Yingzhen Li

Stochastic dominance is an important concept in probability theory, econometrics and social choice theory for robustly modeling agents' preferences between random outcomes. While many works have been dedicated to the univariate case, little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Gabriel Rioux , Apoorva Nitsure , Mattia Rigotti , Kristjan Greenewald , Youssef Mroueh

We examine the effect of item arrangement on choices using a novel decision-making model based on the Markovian exploration of choice sets. This model is inspired by experimental evidence suggesting that the decision-making process involves…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-10-30 Kremena Valkanova

The time process of transport on randomly evolving trees is investigated. By introducing the notions of living and dead nodes a model of random tree evolution is constructed which describes the spreading in time of objects corresponding to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 L. Pal

Upper bounds are derived on the total variation distance between the invariant distributions of two stochastic matrices differing on a subset W of rows. Such bounds depend on three parameters: the mixing time and the minimal expected…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Giacomo Como , Fabio Fagnani

Distribution shifts have long been regarded as troublesome external forces that a decision-maker should either counteract or conform to. An intriguing feedback phenomenon termed decision dependence arises when the deployed decision affects…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Zhiyu He , Saverio Bolognani , Florian Dörfler , Michael Muehlebach

Modal regression, a widely used regression protocol, has been extensively investigated in statistical and machine learning communities due to its robustness to outliers and heavy-tailed noises. Understanding modal regression's theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-15 Tielang Gong , Yuxin Dong , Hong Chen , Bo Dong , Wei Feng , Chen Li

In this paper we focus on providing sufficient conditions for some well-known stochastic orders in reliability but dealing with the discrete versions of them, filling a gap in the literature. In particular, we find conditions based on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-28 F. Belzunce , C. Martínez-Riquelme , M. Pereda

Motivated by recently investigated results on dependence measures and robust risk models, this paper provides an overview of dependence properties of many well-known bivariate copula families, where the focus is on the Schur order for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Jonathan Ansari , Marcus Rockel

Dynamic regression trees are an attractive option for automatic regression and classification with complicated response surfaces in on-line application settings. We create a sequential tree model whose state changes in time with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-23 Matthew A. Taddy , Robert B. Gramacy , Nicholas G. Polson

The concept of "stochastic precedence" between two real-valued random variables has often emerged in different applied frameworks. In this paper we consider a slightly more general, and completely natural, concept of stochastic precedence…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-17 Emilio De Santis , Fabio Fantozzi , Fabio Spizzichino

The stability of iterations of affine linear maps $\Psi_{n}(x)=A_{n}x+B_{n}$, $n=1,2,\ldots$, is studied in the presence of a Markovian environment, more precisely, for the situation when $(A_{n},B_{n})_{n\ge 1}$ is modulated by an ergodic…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-09 Gerold Alsmeyer , Fabian Buckmann

We consider Markov processes, which describe e.g. queueing network processes, in a random environment which influences the network by determining random breakdown of nodes, and the necessity of repair thereafter. Starting from an explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-03 H. Daduna , R. Szekli

In this work we establish the posterior consistency for a parametrized family of partially observed, fully dominated Markov models. As a main assumption, we suppose that the prior distribution assigns positive probability to all…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-01 Randal Douc , Jimmy Olsson , Francois Roueff

We investigate approximating joint distributions of random processes with causal dependence tree distributions. Such distributions are particularly useful in providing parsimonious representation when there exists causal dynamics among…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-01-27 Christopher J. Quinn , Todd P. Coleman , Negar Kiyavash

We study optimization problems in which a linear functional is maximized over probability measures that are dominated by a given measure according to an integral stochastic order in an arbitrary dimension. We show that the following four…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-13 Frank Yang , Kai Hao Yang

In this work, we focus on the stationary analysis of a specific class of continuous time Markov-modulated reflected random walks in the quarter plane with applications in the modelling of two-node Markov-modulated queueing networks with…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Ioannis Dimitriou

We consider a model for which every site of $\mathbb{N}$ is assigned a fitness in $[0,1]$. At every discrete time all the sites are updated and each site samples a uniform on $[0,1]$, independently of everything else. At every discrete time…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-29 Iddo Ben-Ari , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

We investigate the properties of uniform doubly stochastic random matrices, that is non-negative matrices conditioned to have their rows and columns sum to 1. The rescaled marginal distributions are shown to converge to exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-01 Sourav Chatterjee , Persi Diaconis , Allan Sly
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