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Many economic models feature monotone Markov dynamics on state spaces that may be noncompact. Establishing existence, uniqueness, and stability of stationary distributions in such settings has required a patchwork of sufficient conditions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Takashi Kamihigashi , John Stachurski

We study conditional independence relationships for random networks and their interplay with exchangeability. We show that, for finitely exchangeable network models, the empirical subgraph densities are maximum likelihood estimates of their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Steffen Lauritzen , Alessandro Rinaldo , Kayvan Sadeghi

We explore the asymptotic convergence and nonasymptotic maximal inequalities of supermartingales and backward submartingales in the space of positive semidefinite matrices. These are natural matrix analogs of scalar nonnegative…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Hongjian Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

We investigate multivariate regular variation in the context of time-homogeneous Markov chains on general vector spaces and in random coefficient linear models. In the first part, we show that the regular variation of the stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-23 Piotr Dyszewski , Tamara Mika

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

Optimization problems with stochastic dominance constraints provide a possibility to shape risk by selecting a benchmark random outcome with a desired distribution. The comparison of the relevant random outcomes to the respective benchmarks…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Darinka Dentcheva , Yunxuan Yi

We introduce and analyze a new class of monotone stochastic recursions in a regenerative environment which is essentially broader than that of Markov chains. We prove stability theorems and apply our results {to three canonical models in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-22 Sergey Foss , Vsevolod Shneer , Jonathan P. Thomas , Tim Worrall

We discuss properties of distributions that are multivariate totally positive of order two (MTP2) related to conditional independence. In particular, we show that any independence model generated by an MTP2 distribution is a compositional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-03 Shaun Fallat , Steffen Lauritzen , Kayvan Sadeghi , Caroline Uhler , Nanny Wermuth , Piotr Zwiernik

We derive sufficient conditions for the convex and monotonic g-stochastic ordering of diffusion processes under nonlinear g-expectations and g-evaluations. Our approach relies on comparison results for forward-backward stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-13 Sel Ly , Nicolas Privault

The limiting probability distribution is one of the key characteristics of a Markov chain since it shows its long-term behavior. In this paper, for a higher order Markov chain, we establish some properties related to its exact limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Lixing Han , Jianhong Xu

For an m-dimensional multivariate extreme value distribution there exist 2^{m}-1 exponent measures which are linked and completely characterise the dependence of the distribution and all of its lower dimensional margins. In this paper we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-01 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

The methodology based on the random walk processes is adapted and applied to a comprehensive analysis of the statistical properties of the probability fluxes. To this aim we define a simple model of the Markovian stochastic dynamics on a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-15 Przemyslaw Chelminiak , Michal Kurzynski

In recent years, stochastic dominance for independent and identically distributed (iid) infinite-mean random variables has received considerable attention. The literature has identified several classes of distributions of nonnegative random…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Keyi Zeng , Zhenfeng Zou , Yuting Su , Taizhong Hu

In this paper, we study the Markovian Pandora's Box Problem, where decisions are governed by both order constraints and Markovianly correlated rewards, structured within a shared directed acyclic graph. To the best of our knowledge,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Yuanyuan Yang , Ruimin Zhang , Jamie Morgenstern , Haifeng Xu

We introduce a new dependence order, termed the conditional convex order, whose minimal and maximal elements characterize independence and perfect dependence. Moreover, it characterizes conditional independence, satisfies information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-22 Jonathan Ansari , Sebastian Fuchs

We propose a method for the classification of objects that are structured as random trees. Our aim is to model a distribution over the node label assignments in settings where the tree data structure is associated with node attributes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Wouter W. L. Nuijten , Vlado Menkovski

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Convex combinations of i.i.d. random variables without a finite mean can behave in a strikingly different way from the finite-mean case: as the weight vector becomes more balanced, the resulting combination may become stochastically larger,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Tommaso Lando , Paulo Eduardo Oliveira

In multi-period stochastic optimization problems, the future optimal decision is a random variable whose distribution depends on the parameters of the optimization problem. We analyze how the expected value of this random variable changes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Bar Light

Consider a random sample $X_1 , X_2 , ..., X_n$ drawn independently and identically distributed from some known sampling distribution $P_X$. Let $X_{(1)} \le X_{(2)} \le ... \le X_{(n)}$ represent the order statistics of the sample. The…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-28 Alex Dytso , Martina Cardone , Cynthia Rush