Related papers: Bringing Age Back In: Accounting for Population Ag…
Demographic indicators are an essential element in considering various problems in the social economy, such as predicting economic fluctuations and establishing policies. The literature widely discusses the growth of the world population or…
This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by…
Migration's influence in shaping population dynamics in times of impending climate and population crises exposes its crucial role in upholding societal cohesion. As migration impacts virtually all aspects of life, it continues to require…
Increasing every year the retirement age by the same amount as the increase of the life expectancy gives roughly stable ratios of the number of retired to working-age people in industrialized countries. Continuous influx of immigrants,…
Existing theories for the evolution of aging and death treat senescence as a side-effect of strong selection for fertility. These theories are well-developed mathematically, but fit poorly with emerging experimental data. The data suggest…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…
The share of the world population living in cities with more than one million people rose from 11% in 1975 to 24% in 2025 (our estimates). Will this trend towards greater concentration in large cities continue or level off? We introduce two…
Each individual in society experiences an evolution of their income during their lifetime. Macroscopically, this dynamics creates a statistical relationship between age and income for each society. In this study, we investigate income…
Recent studies of human migration have focused on modern issues of international economics, politics, urbanization, or commuting. Here we make use of very large anonymized genealogies which offer quantitative metrics and models before…
Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
Social media provide access to behavioural data at an unprecedented scale and granularity. However, using these data to understand phenomena in a broader population is difficult due to their non-representativeness and the bias of…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
An emerging area of research is the study of macroscale migration patterns as a network of nodes that represent places (e.g., countries, cities, and rural areas) and edges that encode migration ties that connect those places. In this…
Understanding human mobility patterns -- how people move in their everyday lives -- is an interdisciplinary research field. It is a question with roots back to the 19th century that has been dramatically revitalized with the recent increase…
This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…
This paper investigates a nonlinear logistic model for age-structured population dynamics. The model incorporates interdependent fertility and mortality functions within a logistic framework, offering insights into stationary solutions and…
We examine the dynamics of an age-structured population model in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of the parent. While the total population of the system always reaches a steady state, the…