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We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
Most population projection models require age-specific information on net migration totals as a key demographic component of population change. Existing methods for predicting future patterns of net migration by age have proven inadequate.…
Cross-border migration brings economic and cultural impacts to the origin and destination, and is also a key to reflect the international relations of related countries. In fact, the migration relationships of countries are complex and…
Modelling migration is complicated, as people move for many reasons. Some leave their country for the first time, others return to places they once called home, or move on to new destinations. However, most models focus only on who arrives,…
Ignoring the differences between countries, human reproductive and dispersal behaviors can be described by some standardized models, so whether there is a universal law of population growth hidden in the abundant and unstructured data from…
Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…
The United Nations is the major organization producing and regularly updating probabilistic population projections for all countries. International migration is a critical component of such projections, and between-country correlations are…
Detailed estimates of migration stocks and flows provides evidence for understanding population dynamics, and the impact of economic and political changes that influence migration. Using data from the 2000 decennial census and 2001-2016…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
User-generated family trees are invaluable for constructing population-scale family networks and studying population dynamics over many generations and far into the past. Family trees contain information on individuals such as birth and…
In this paper, we provide a comprehensive cross-country validation study of compositional mortality modeling and forecasting methods. Thus, we consider two one-to-one transformations: the cumulative distribution function and the centered…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller…
The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show…
Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…
The national census is an essential data source to support decision-making in many areas of public interest. However, this data may become outdated during the intercensal period, which can stretch up to several decades. We developed a…
Political discourse attributes the pressure on European welfare systems to foreign nationals. Yet projections of service demand rarely disaggregate service demand by citizenship status. We develop a structural demographic model and project…
Existing theories of migration either focus on micro- or macroscopic behavior of populations; that is, either the average behavior of entire population is modeled directly, or decisions of individuals are modeled directly. In this work, we…