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Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Existing mortality forecasting methods focus on age-specific mortality rates, which lie in an unconstrained space and overlook the distributional nature of life-table death counts. Few studies have developed and compared forecasting methods…
Knowledge of population distribution is critical for building infrastructure, distributing resources, and monitoring the progress of sustainable development goals. Although censuses can provide this information, they are typically conducted…
The classical foundations of migration research date from the 1880s with Ravenstein's Laws of migration, which represent the first comparative analyses of internal migration. While his observations remain largely valid, the ensuing century…
In this article we analyze the global flow of migrants from 206 source countries to 145 destination countries (2006-2010) and focus on the differences in the migration network pattern between destination and source counters as represented…
Application of some basic notions and statistics of ageing distributions used in mathematical theory of reliability including the Gini-type index is discussed as a methodological tool for investigation of human population ageing and…
Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…
We propose a framework to examine future migration patterns of people under different sea level rise scenarios using models of human migration. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration,…
\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…
We formulate an age-structured nonlinear partial differential equation model that features short-term immigration effects in a population. Individuals can immigrate into the population as any of the three stages in the model: susceptible,…
We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the proportional contribution of source populations to a newly founded colony. Samples are derived from the first generation offspring in the colony, but mating may occur preferentially…
Fine-grained migration data illuminate demographic, environmental, and health phenomena. However, United States migration data have serious drawbacks: public data lack spatial granularity, and higher-resolution proprietary data suffer from…
The paper analyses international migration flows from the network perspective by the evaluation of centrality indices. In order to find the most influential countries in the international migration network classical centrality indices and…
Population migration is valuable information which leads to proper decision in urban-planning strategy, massive investment, and many other fields. For instance, inter-city migration is a posterior evidence to see if the government's…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…
We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values…