Related papers: Forecasting dengue outbreaks with uncertainty usin…
Increasing greenhouse gases will change many aspects of the Earth's climate, from its annual mean to the frequency of extremes such as heat waves and droughts. Here we report that the current generation of climate models predicts a delay in…
Climate change is an impending disaster which is of pressing concern more and more every year. Countless efforts have been made to study the long-term effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity. Studies…
Dengue remains one of Brazil's major epidemiological challenges, marked by strong intra-urban inequalities and the influence of climatic and socio-environmental factors. This study analyzed confirmed dengue cases in Recife from 2015 to 2024…
Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, one of the most prevalent neglected tropical diseases, pose a significant threat to public health in tropical and subtropical areas. These parasites infect humans and animals through direct…
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed that global health, social systems, and economies can be surprisingly fragile in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world. Yet, during the last half of 2022, and quite remarkably, we began…
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI epidemiological model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, subject to seasonal variations. Assuming continuous measurement of the incidence rate (that is the…
Background: Studies have shown that human mobility is an important factor in dengue epidemiology. Changes in mobility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic set up a real-life situation to test this hypothesis. Our objective was to evaluate the…
We present a SIR+ASI epidemic model to describe the interaction between human and dengue fever mosquito populations. A control strategy in the form of vaccination, to decrease the number of infected individuals, is used. An optimal control…
In a study conducted in Singapore, a country prone to dengue outbreaks due to its climate and urban population, researchers examined the effectiveness of releasing male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia (wAlbB strain) to…
Many uncontrollable disease outbreaks of the past exposed several vulnerabilities in the healthcare systems worldwide. While advancements in technology assisted in the rapid creation of the vaccinations, there needs to be a pressing focus…
Households play a crucial role in the propagation of infectious diseases due to the frequent and prolonged interactions that typically occur between their members. Recent studies have emphasized the need to include socioeconomic variables…
We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…
The spread of the global COVID-19 pandemic affected Sri Lanka similar to how it affected other countries across the globe. The Sri Lankan government took many preventive measures to suppress the pandemic spread. To aid policy makers in…
Based on approximately 90,000 confirmed dengue cases reported in Recife - a major city in northeastern Brazil - between 2015 and 2024, we conducted a neighborhood-level spatial analysis. Socioeconomic and demographic indicators from the…
The introduction of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes into the population has recently been proposed as an alternative strategy against dengue. Although laboratory experiments have shown that the Wolbachia bacterium can reduce the levels of…
Diffusion processes in a social system are governed by external triggers and internal excitations via interactions between individuals over social networks. Underlying mechanisms are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in the real…
The resurgence of vector-borne diseases is an increasing public health concern, and there is a need for a better understanding of their dynamics. For a number of diseases, e.g. dengue and chikungunya, this resurgence occurs mostly in urban…
We investigate a time-dependent spatial vector-host epidemic model with non-coincident domains for the vector and host populations. The host population resides in small non-overlapping sub-regions, while the vector population resides…