Related papers: Forecasting dengue outbreaks with uncertainty usin…
We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…
The relationship between epidemiology, mathematical modeling and computational tools allows to build and test theories on the development and battling of a disease. This PhD thesis is motivated by the study of epidemiological models applied…
A model with six mutually-exclusive compartments related to dengue is studied. Three vector control tools are considered: insecticides (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical control. The basic reproduction number associated to the model…
It is estimated that around 80\% of the world's population live in areas susceptible to at-least one major vector borne disease, and approximately 20% of global communicable diseases are spread by mosquitoes. Furthermore, the outbreaks of…
Aedes aegypti is known as the responsible vector transmitting dengue flavivirus. Unavailability of medication to cure the transmission of the virus in the human blood becomes a global health issue in recent decades. World epidemiologists…
Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…
Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is…
The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island on 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue…
Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…
Chikungunya is an emerging threat for health security all over the world which is spreading very fast. Researches for proper forecasting of the incidence rate of chikungunya has been going on in many places in which DARPA has done a very…
Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral disease. Clinical symptoms of dengue virus (DENV) infection range from classical mild dengue fever to severe, life-threatening dengue shock syndrome. However, most DENV infections cause few…
Reliable and timely dengue predictions provide actionable lead time for targeted vector control and clinical preparedness, reducing preventable diseases and health-system costs in at-risk communities. Dengue forecasting often relies on…
The problems of selecting partial correlation and causality graphs for count data are considered. A parameter driven generalized linear model is used to describe the observed multivariate time series of counts. Partial correlation and…
Black Sigatoka disease severely decreases global banana production, and climate change aggravates the problem by altering fungal species distributions. Due to the heavy financial burden of managing this infectious disease, farmers in…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Dengue, which affects millions of people each year, is one of the most common diseases transmitted by infected \textit{Aedes aegypti} mosquitoes. In the Philippines, the annual economic cost of dengue infections is estimated at around PHP…
Different extensions of the classical single-strain SIR model for the host population, motivated by modeling dengue fever epidemiology, have reported a rich dynamic structure including deterministic chaos which was able to explain the large…
Deterministic models are developed for the spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings. The models are focused on outbreaks that arise from a small number of infected hosts imported into sub-regions of the geographical…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…