Related papers: Forecasting dengue outbreaks with uncertainty usin…
Zoonotic diseases spread through pathogens-infected animal carriers. In the case of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), evidence supports that the main carriers are fruit bats and non-human primates. Further, EVD spread is a multi-factorial problem…
As the development of a dengue vaccine is ongoing, we simulate an hypothetical vaccine as an extra protection to the population. In a first phase, the vaccination process is studied as a new compartment in the model, and different ways of…
We present an epidemiological model for vector-borne diseases that includes within-host viral load and antibody dynamics using structured transport equations. By incorporating the internal dynamics into the infected and recovered host…
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…
Mosquitoes are vectors of viral diseases with epidemic potential in many regions of the world, and in absence of vaccines or therapies, their control is the main alternative. Chemical control through insecticides has been one of the…
Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most…
West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne pathogen of global relevance and is currently the most widely distributed flavivirus of encephalitis worldwide. This virus infects birds, humans, horses, and other mammals, and its transmission cycle…
Dengue viral infections show unique infection patterns arising from its four serot- ypes, (DENV-1,2,3,4). Its effects range from simple fever in primary infections to potentially fatal secondary infections. We analytically and numerically…
A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the winter (Dec-Feb) in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…
Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…
Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…
Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases,…
This paper is devoted to the study of optimal release strategies to control vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya and malaria. Two techniques are considered: the sterile insect one (SIT), which consists in releasing…
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Although dengue fever is an ancient disease that should have been eradicated since time ago, in Mexico as well as in other regions worldwide the cases of classic and hemorrhagic dengue continue to be reported presently. Since 2002 (and…