Related papers: Reduced seismic activity after mega earthquakes
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This…
We introduce a shear experiment that quantitatively reproduces the main laws of seismicity. By continuously and slowly shearing a compressed monolayer of disks in a ring-like geometry, our system delivers events of frictional failures with…
The paper provides a synoptic overview of a series of works carried out by a group of researchers at the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS with the aim of finding new approaches to the problems of earthquake physics. The fundamental…
Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our new point is to demonstrate that the…
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…
Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
We drew attention to the analogy between the round-the-world seismic echo on the Earth and on the Sun. The phenomenon of echo on the Earth is observed during earthquakes. It was found that the main shock of earthquake excites a circular…
The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data…
The data analysis of aftershock events of L Aquila earthquake in Apennines following the main 6.3 Mw event of April 6, 2009 has been carried out by standard statistical geophysical tools. The results show the heterogeneity of seismic…
We have analyzed, for the first time, the time cumulant of magnitudes of an aftershock sequence since the mainshock. This comes out to be a remarkable straight line whose slope is characteristic of the fault zone. This will provide an…
It has been shown [Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011); Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude $M$ greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance $\kappa_1$ of natural…
By applying natural time analysis to the time series of earthquakes, we find that the order parameter of seismicity exhibits a unique change approximately at the date(s) at which Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities have been reported…
The advanced machine learning algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was developed to forecast strong aftershocks in earthquake sequences and has been successfully tested in Italy, western Slovenia, Greece, and California.…
A recent model predicting Omori's law giving the number of aftershocks per unit time following an earthquake involves a differential equation analogous to the Friedmann equation of cosmology. The before-shock phase is analogous to an…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
This article proposes a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model by incorporating a renewal main-shock arrival process, which we term the renewal ETAS (RETAS) model. This…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this…
We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…