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Dynamical systems with high intrinsic dimensionality are often characterized by extreme events having the form of rare transitions several standard deviations away from the mean. For such systems, order-reduction methods through projection…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2018-07-04 Zhong Yi Wan , Pantelis R. Vlachas , Petros Koumoutsakos , Themistoklis P. Sapsis

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

Joint models are a common and important tool in the intersection of machine learning and the physical sciences, particularly in contexts where real-world measurements are scarce. Recent developments in rainfall-runoff modeling, one of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Guy Shalev , Ran El-Yaniv , Daniel Klotz , Frederik Kratzert , Asher Metzger , Sella Nevo

This paper discusses a non-intrusive data-driven model order reduction method that learns low-dimensional dynamical models for a parametrized shallow water equation. We consider the shallow water equation in non-traditional form (NTSWE). We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-06 Süleyman Yıldız , Pawan Goyal , Peter Benner , Bülent Karasözen

We present a new continuous data assimilation algorithm based on ideas that have been developed for designing finite-dimensional feedback controls for dissipative dynamical systems, in particular, in the context of the incompressible…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-06-15 Abderrahim Azouani , Eric Olson , Edriss S. Titi

Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) pose escalating threats to coastal cities, intensifying the need for efficient and accurate methods to predict potential flood hazards. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic simulators, although…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Bilal Hassan , Areg Karapetyan , Aaron Chung Hin Chow , Samer Madanat

In meteorology, engineering and computer sciences, data assimilation is routinely employed as the optimal way to combine noisy observations with prior model information for obtaining better estimates of a state, and thus better forecasts,…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-08-12 M. J. Werner , K. Ide , D. Sornette

Machine learning has opened new frontiers in purely data-driven algorithms for data assimilation in, and for forecasting of, dynamical systems; the resulting methods are showing some promise. However, in contrast to model-driven algorithms,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Edoardo Calvello , Elizabeth Carlson , Nikola Kovachki , Michael N. Manta , Andrew M. Stuart

Complex systems are often described with competing models. Such divergence of interpretation on the system may stem from model fidelity, mathematical simplicity, and more generally, our limited knowledge of the underlying processes.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-07-21 Lun Yang , Akil Narayan , Peng Wang

Data assimilation algorithms are used to estimate the states of a dynamical system using partial and noisy observations. The ensemble Kalman filter has become a popular data assimilation scheme due to its simplicity and robustness for a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Gottfried Hastermann , Maria Reinhardt , Rupert Klein , Sebastian Reich

Weather prediction is a quintessential problem involving the forecasting of a complex, nonlinear, and chaotic high-dimensional dynamical system. This work introduces an efficient reduced-order modeling (ROM) framework for short-range…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Amirpasha Hedayat , Karthik Duraisamy

This paper is a contribution in the context of variational data assimilation combined with statistical learning. The framework of data assimilation traditionally uses data collected at sensor locations in order to bring corrections to a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Amina Benaceur , Barbara Verfürth

Data assimilation is a method that combines observations (that is, real world data) of a state of a system with model output for that system in order to improve the estimate of the state of the system and thereby the model output. The model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Melina A. Freitag

With the increasing penetration of high-frequency sensors across a number of biological and physical systems, the abundance of the resulting observations offers opportunities for higher statistical accuracy of down-stream estimates, but…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-06 Shushu Zhang , Vivak Patel

The use of in-situ digital sensors for water quality monitoring is becoming increasingly common worldwide. While these sensors provide near real-time data for science, the data are prone to technical anomalies that can undermine the…

Data assimilation plays a crucial role in modern weather prediction, providing a systematic way to incorporate observational data into complex dynamical models. The paper addresses continuous data assimilation for a model arising as a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Eduard Feireisl , Piotr Gwiazda , Agnieszka Świerczewska-Gwiazda

Forecasting ocean drift trajectories are important for many applications, including search and rescue operations, oil spill cleanup and iceberg risk mitigation. In an operational setting, forecasts of drift trajectories are produced based…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-26 Håvard Heitlo Holm , Martin Lilleeng Sætra , Peter Jan van Leeuwen

We propose an extension of the discretization approaches for multilayer shallow water models, aimed at making them more flexible and efficient for realistic applications to coastal flows. A novel discretization approach is proposed, in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-18 Luca Bonaventura , Enrique D. Fernández-Nieto , José Garres-Díaz , Gladys Narbona-Reina

Short-term water demand forecasting (StWDF) is the foundation stone in the derivation of an optimal plan for controlling water supply systems. Deep learning (DL) approaches provide the most accurate solutions for this purpose. However, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Tony Salloom , Okyay Kaynak , Wei He

Data Assimilation (DA) and Uncertainty quantification (UQ) are extensively used in analysing and reducing error propagation in high-dimensional spatial-temporal dynamics. Typical applications span from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to…

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