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Aedes aegypti is known as the responsible vector transmitting dengue flavivirus. Unavailability of medication to cure the transmission of the virus in the human blood becomes a global health issue in recent decades. World epidemiologists…
There has been interest in the interactions between infectious disease dynamics and behaviour for most of the history of mathematical epidemiology. This has included consideration of which mathematical models best capture each phenomenon,…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Deep generative models have been demonstrated as problematic in the unsupervised out-of-distribution (OOD) detection task, where they tend to assign higher likelihoods to OOD samples. Previous studies on this issue are usually not…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
The current manuscript introduce a single-strain dengue model developed from stochastic processes incorporating fractional order transmission and recovery. The fractional derivative has been introduced within the context of transmission and…
This paper presents a new view of household epidemic models, where the interaction between the households is of mean field type. We thus obtain in the limit of infinitely many households a nonlinear Markov process solution of a McKean -…
In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…
Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection can involve all immune system components and can result in different disease outcomes. The antibiotic TB drugs require strict adherence to prevent both disease relapse and mutation of drug- and…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
Accounting for exposure measurement errors has been recognized as a crucial problem in environmental epidemiology for over two decades. Bayesian hierarchical models offer a coherent probabilistic framework for evaluating associations…
We consider incomplete observations of stochastic processes governing the spread of infectious diseases through finite populations by way of contact. We propose a flexible semiparametric modeling framework with at least three advantages.…
We apply the cavity master equation (CME) approach to epidemics models. We explore mostly the susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model, which can be readily treated with the CME as a two-state. We show that this approach is more…
A model for the transmission of dengue disease is presented. It consists of eight mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics. It also includes a control parameter (insecticide) in order to fight the…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…