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Related papers: Explicit correlations for the Hawkes processes

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We present a Markov approximation for jump-diffusions whose jump part consists in a Hawkes process with intensity driven by a general (possibly non-monotone) kernel. Under minimal integrability conditions, the kernel can be approximated by…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Mahmoud Khabou , Mehdi Talbi

Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Théo Leblanc

The Hawkes process (HP) is commonly used to model event sequences with self-reinforcing dynamics, including electronic health records (EHRs). Traditional HPs capture self-reinforcement via parametric impact functions that can be inspected…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-23 Yuankang Zhao , Matthew Engelhard

Continuous Time Markov Chains, Hawkes processes and many other interesting processes can be described as solution of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson measures. Previous works, using the Stein's method, give the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Eustache Besançon , Laure Coutin , Laurent Decreusefond , Pascal Moyal

The Epps effect is key phenomenology relating to high frequency correlation dynamics in financial markets. We argue that it can be used to provide insight into whether tick data is best represented as samples from Brownian diffusions, or as…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-14 Patrick Chang , Etienne Pienaar , Tim Gebbie

We study the problem of non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process. The observations are $n$ independent realisations of a Poisson point process on the interval $[0,T]$. We propose two related…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-31 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

A multivariate Hawkes process enables self- and cross-excitations through a triggering matrix that behaves like an asymmetrical covariance structure, characterizing pairwise interactions between the event types. Full-rank estimation of all…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Myrl G. Marmarelis , Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan

We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-17 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Alexander Soen , Shidi Li , Pio Calderon , Leanne Dong , Aditya Krishna Menon , Lexing Xie

We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Maxime Morariu-Patrichi , Mikko S. Pakkanen

Temporal networks are characterised by interdependent link events between nodes, forming ordered sequences of links that may represent specific information flows in the system. Nevertheless, representing temporal networks using discrete…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Yuwei Zhu , Paolo Barucca

Efforts to model viral cascades provide a vital view into how they form and spread. A range of methods, such as Multivariate Hawkes Processes or network inference algorithms, attempt to decompose cascades into constituent components via…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-02-28 Nick Hagar , Laila Wahedi , Eric Dunford

Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Emilia Siviero , Guillaume Staerman , Stephan Clémençon , Thomas Moreau

In this paper, we build a model for biological neural nets where the activity of the network is described by Hawkes processes having a variable length memory. The particularity of this paper is to deal with an infinite number of components.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-18 Pierre Hodara , Eva Löcherbach

This note aims at presenting several new theoretical results for the compound Poisson point process, which follows the work of Zhang \emph{et al.} [Insurance~Math.~Econom.~59(2014), 325-336]. The first part provides a new characterization…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Huiming Zhang , Xiaoxu Wu

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric framework for inference in spatio-temporal Hawkes processes, extending existing theoretical results beyond the purely temporal setting. Our framework encompasses modelling both the background and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-08 Xenia Miscouridou , Deborah Sulem

This work introduces a self and mutually exciting point process that embeds flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics. By allowing the integration of diverse residual distributions, this model serves as an…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-02 Kyungsub Lee
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