English
Related papers

Related papers: Explicit correlations for the Hawkes processes

200 papers

The Hawkes process is a counting process that has self- and mutually-exciting features with many applications in various fields. In recent years, there have been many interests in the mean-field results of the Hawkes process and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Fuqing Gao , Yunshi Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

This work contributes to the theory and applications of Hawkes processes. We introduce and examine a new class of Hawkes processes that we call generalized Hawkes processes, and their special subclass -- the generalized multivariate Hawkes…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Mariusz Nieweglowski

This study considers the Merton model with temporal correlation. We show the Merton model becomes Poisson process with the log-normal distributed intensity function in the limit. We discuss the relation between this model and Hawkes…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-21 Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Hongteng Xu , Dixin Luo , Hongyuan Zha

We consider a Poisson process $\eta$ on an arbitrary measurable space with an arbitrary sigma-finite intensity measure. We establish an explicit Fock space representation of square integrable functions of $\eta$. As a consequence we…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-18 Guenter Last , Mathew D. Penrose

In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of a univariate Hawkes process with self-excitation or inhibition. Our work generalizes techniques and results that were restricted to the self-exciting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-23 Anna Bonnet , Miguel Martinez Herrera , Maxime Sangnier

We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-24 Maciej Jagielski , Ryszard Kutner , Didier Sornette

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-10 Lorenzo Mercuri , Andrea Perchiazzo , Edit Rroji

Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Triet M Le

Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-13 Patrick J. Laub , Thomas Taimre , Philip K. Pollett

The Cox process is a stochastic process which generalises the Poisson process by letting the underlying intensity function itself be a stochastic process. In this paper we present a fast Bayesian inference scheme for the permanental…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Christian J. Walder , Adrian N. Bishop

We investigate the nonparametric estimation problem of the density $\pi$, representing the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional system $\left(Z_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}=\left(X_t, \lambda_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}$. In this system, $X$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler

In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Caroline Hillairet , Anthony Reveillac , Mathieu Rosenbaum

Existence and stability properties are studied for Hawkes process, i.e. point process $S$ that has long-memory and intensity $r(t)=\lambda \big(g_0(t)+ \sum_{\tau<t, \tau \in S} h(t-\tau) \big)$. The approach to Hawkes process presented in…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-17 Dmytro Karabash

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Rafael Lima , Jaesik Choi

We observe $n$ inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. We assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form $s (\cdot, x)$ where $x$ is the covariate and where $s$ is an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-14 Mathieu Sart

The Hawkes process is a widely used model in many areas, such as finance, seismology, neuroscience, epidemiology, and social sciences. Estimation of the Hawkes process from continuous observations of a sample path is relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Feng Chen , Jeffrey Kwan , Tom Stindl

The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-22 Joseph D. O'Brien , Alberto Aleta , Yamir Moreno , James P. Gleeson