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Related papers: Explicit correlations for the Hawkes processes

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Poisson shot noise processes are natural generalizations of compound Poisson processes that have been widely applied in insurance, neuroscience, seismology, computer science and epidemiology. In this paper we study sharp deviations,…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-12 Giovanni Luca Torrisi , Emilio Leonardi

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz

We consider the stochastic volatility model obtained by adding a compound Hawkes process to the volatility of the well-known Heston model. A Hawkes process is a self-exciting counting process with many applications in mathematical finance,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-28 David R. Baños , Salvador Ortiz-Latorre , Oriol Zamora Font

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Antoine Lotz

In this paper, we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian inference for Cox processes in which the intensity function is driven by a diffusion process. The novelty lies in the fact that no discretization error is involved, despite…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-06 Flavio B. Gonçalves , Krzysztof G. Łatuszyński , Gareth O. Roberts

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

This paper addresses nonparametric estimation of nonlinear multivariate Hawkes processes, where the interaction functions are assumed to lie in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Motivated by applications in neuroscience, the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

We derive exact analytical expressions for the cumulants of any orders of neuronal membrane potentials driven by spike trains in a multivariate Hawkes process model with excitation and inhibition. Such expressions can be used for the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-30 Nicolas Privault , Michèle Thieullen

We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-24 Xenia Miscouridou , Samir Bhatt , George Mohler , Seth Flaxman , Swapnil Mishra

Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Lingjiong Zhu

We give exact formulae for a wide family of complexity measures that capture the organization of hidden nonlinear processes. The spectral decomposition of operator-valued functions leads to closed-form expressions involving the full…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-09-17 James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison , Paul M. Riechers

In this paper, we introduce a new class of processes which are diffusions with jumps driven by a multivariate nonlinear Hawkes process. Our goal is to study their long-time behavior. In the case of exponential memory kernels for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-09 Charlotte Dion , Sarah Lemler , Eva Löcherbach

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

Multi-dimensional Hawkes process (MHP) is a class of self and mutually exciting point processes that find wide range of applications -- from prediction of earthquakes to modelling of order books in high frequency trading. This paper makes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Sobin Joseph , Lekhapriya Dheeraj Kashyap , Shashi Jain