Related papers: Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an…
The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
In this study, we use US county-level COVID-19 case data from January 21-March 25, 2020 to study the exponential behavior of case growth at the metropolitan scale. In particular, we assume that all localized outbreaks are in an early stage…
Infectious diseases have severe health and economic consequences for society. It is important in controlling the spread of an emerging infectious disease to be able to both estimate the parameters of the underlying model and identify those…
Spatio-temporal models for infection counts generally follow themes of the broader disease mapping literature, but may need to address specific features of spatio-temporal infection data including considerable time fluctuations (with…
During early 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 virus rapidly spread worldwide, forcing many governments to impose strict lockdown measures to tackle the pandemic. This significantly changed people's mobility and habits, subsequently impacting how they…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…
Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…
The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…
Responding to disease outbreaks requires close surveillance of their trajectories, but outbreak detection is hindered by the high noise in epidemic time series. Aggregating information across data sources has shown great denoising ability…
The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of the new COVID-19 disease (COVID-19 for short) demands empowering existing medical, economic, and social emergency backend systems with data analytics capabilities. An impediment in taking…
We propose a novel model-based clustering approach for samples of time series. We assume as a unique commonality that two observations belong to the same group if structural changes in their behaviours happen at the same time. We resort to…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific…
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of…
Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control policies, but may be hindered by incomplete…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…