Related papers: Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
We present "interoperability" as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market, political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other…
With rapid transmission, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to over 2 million deaths worldwide, posing significant societal challenges. Understanding the spatial patterns of patient visits and detecting the local spreading…
We analyze data from Twitter to uncover early-warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe in the winter season 2019-2020, before the first public announcements of local sources of infection were made. We show evidence that unexpected…
The new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. One of the questions many policy makers, and governments are asking themselves is how the spread is…
The COVID-19 pandemic provided many modeling challenges to investigate the evolution of an epidemic process over areal units. A suitable encompassing model must describe the spatio-temporal variations of the disease infection rate of…
During Covid-19 outbreaks, school closures are employed as part of governments' non-pharmaceutical interventions around the world to reduce the number of contacts and keep the reproduction number below 1. Yet, prolonged school closures have…
Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…
Contact tracing systems control the spread of disease by discovering the set of people an infectious individual has come into contact with. Students are often mobile and sociable and therefore can contribute to the spread of disease.…
The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, e.g., in the form of a time-series of reported cases or fatalities, is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of an adverse health event such…
A target to eliminate Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) transmission in England by 2030 was set in early 2019. Estimates of recent trends in HIV prevalence, particularly the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV, by exposure group,…
Mathematical models have been used to understand the spread patterns of infectious diseases such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission component of the models can be modelled in an age-dependent manner via introducing…
Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of…
Epidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting,…
In real-time forecasting in public health, data collection is a non-trivial and demanding task. Often after initially released, it undergoes several revisions later (maybe due to human or technical constraints) - as a result, it may take…
A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…
Markets are subjected to both endogenous and exogenous risks that have caused disruptions to financial and economic markets around the globe, leading eventually to fast stock market declines. In the past, markets have recovered after any…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…