Related papers: Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
To understand the contact patterns of a population -- who is in contact with whom, and when the contacts happen -- is crucial for modeling outbreaks of infectious disease. Traditional theoretical epidemiology assumes that any individual can…
The outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already created emergency situations in almost every country of the world. The disease spreads all…
Epidemics-inspired techniques have received huge attention in recent years from the distributed systems and networking communities. These algorithms and protocols rely on probabilistic message replication and redundancy to ensure reliable…
Due to delay in reporting, the daily national and statewide COVID-19 incidence counts are often unreliable and need to be estimated from recent data. This process is known in economics as nowcasting. We describe in this paper a simple…
A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated…
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…
The current COVID-19 pandemic has already claimed more than 100,000 victims and it will cause more deaths in the coming months. Tools that can track the number and locations of cases are critical for surveillance and can help in making…
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1.3 million in Ontario, Canada by June 4, 2022. The continued spread of the virus underlying COVID-19 has been spurred by the emergence of variants since the initial outbreak in December,…
Epidemiological models are an important tool in coping with epidemics, as they offer a forecast, even if often simplistic, of the behavior of the disease in the population. This allows responsible health agencies to organize themselves and…
The emergence of global health crises, such as COVID-19 and Monkeypox (mpox), has underscored the importance of understanding public sentiment to inform effective public health strategies. This study conducts a comparative sentiment…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
The COVID-19 outbreak has affected millions of people across the globe and is continuing to spread at a drastic scale. Out of the numerous steps taken to control the spread of the virus, social distancing has been a crucial and effective…
Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) have been successfully employed on numerous occasions to obtain vital data-driven insights. In this paper we further substantiate the success story of GAMs,…
From the perspective of human mobility, the COVID-19 pandemic constituted a natural experiment of enormous reach in space and time. Here, we analyse the inherent multiple scales of human mobility using Facebook Movement Maps collected…
A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first…
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of…
Very large numbers of M-pox cases have, since the start of May 2022, been reported in non-endemic countries leading many to fear that the M-pox Outbreak would rapidly transition into another pandemic, while the COVID-19 pandemic ravages on.…
The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on…