Related papers: Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
Emerging epidemics and local infection clusters are initially prone to stochastic effects that can substantially impact the epidemic trajectory. While numerous studies are devoted to the deterministic regime of an established epidemic,…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect communities around the world. To date, almost 6 million people have died as a consequence of COVID-19, and more than one-quarter of a billion people are estimated to have been infected…
Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic…
The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has quickly evolved into a global health crisis. The transmission potential of 2019-nCoV has been modelled and studied in several recent research works. The key factors such as the…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
Worldwide exposure to fine atmospheric particles can exasperate the risk of a wide range of heart and respiratory diseases, due to their ability to penetrate deep into the lungs and blood streams. Epidemiological studies in Europe and…
Existing empirical work has focused on assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on human mobility to contain the spread of COVID-19. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the spatial…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
COVID-19 remains a challenging global threat with ongoing waves of infections and clinical disease which have resulted millions of deaths and an enormous strain on health systems worldwide. Effective vaccines have been developed for the…
The co-occurrence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), or multimorbidity, in an individual can reduce their lifespan and severely impact their quality of life. Exploring the longitudinal patterns, e.g. clusters, of disease accrual can…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…
This paper proposes a novel approach to predict epidemiological parameters by integrating new real-time signals from various sources of information, such as novel social media-based population density maps and Air Quality data. We implement…
Infodemics are a threat to public health, arising from multiple interacting phenomena occurring both online and offline. The continuous feedback loops between the digital information ecosystem and offline contingencies make infodemics…
Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…
On the 23rd March 2020, the UK entered a period of lockdown in the face of a deadly pandemic. While some were unable to work from home, many organisations were forced to move their activities online. Here, we discuss the technologies they…
Indirect surveys, in which respondents provide information about other people they know, have been proposed for estimating (nowcasting) the size of a \emph{hidden population} where privacy is important or the hidden population is hard to…