Related papers: Contradictory predictions with multiple agents

A well-known discovery of Feige's is the following: Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be nonnegative independent random variables, with $\mathbb{E}[X_i] \leq 1 \;\forall i$, and let $X = \sum_{i=1}^n X_i$. Then for any $n$, \[\Pr[X < \mathbb{E}[X] +…

Let $X_1, X_2,\ldots, X_n$ be $n$ independent and identically distributed random variables, here $n \geq 2.$ Let $X_{(1)}, X_{(2)}, \ldots, X_{(n)}$ be the order statistics of $X_1, X_2,..., X_n.$ In this note we proved that: (I) If $X_1,…

A predictive distribution over a sequence of $N+1$ events is said to be "frequency mimicking" whenever the probability for the final event conditioned on the outcome of the first $N$ events equals the relative frequency of successes among…

The theory of uniform approximation of real numbers motivates the study of products of consecutive partial quotients in regular continued fractions. For any non-decreasing positive function $\varphi:\mathbb{N}\to [2,\infty)$, we determine…

In this paper, we compare two variances of maxima of $N$ standard Gaussian random variables. One is a sequence of $N$ i.i.d. standard Gaussians, and the other one is $N$ standard Gaussians with covariances $\sigma_{1,2}=\rho \in(0,1)$ and…

We propose some new results on the comparison of the minimum or maximum order statistic from a random number of non-identical random variables. Under the non-identical set-up, with certain conditions, we prove that random minimum (maximum)…

The Bell inequality constrains the outcomes of measurements on pairs of distant entangled particles. The Bell contradiction states that the Bell inequality is inconsistent with the calculated outcomes of these quantum experiments. This…

A consequence of de Finetti's representation theorem is that for every infinite sequence of exchangeable 0-1 random variables $(X_k)_{k\geq1}$, there exists a probability measure $\mu$ on the Borel sets of $[0,1]$ such that $\bar X_n =…

We want to find the convex combination $S$ of iid Bernoulli random variables that maximizes $\textbf{P}(S\geq t)$ for a given threshold~$t$. Cs\'oka conjectured that such an $S$ is an average if $t\geq p$, where $p$ is the success…

Based on a maximal inequality type result of Cuculescu, we establish some noncommutative maximal inequalities such as Haj\'ek--Penyi inequality and Etemadi inequality. In addition, we present a noncommutative Kolmogorov type inequality by…

We derive bounds and asymptotics for the maximum Riesz polarization quantity $$M_n^p(A) := \max_{{\bold x}_1, {\bold x}_2, \ldots, {\bold x}_n \in A} {\min_{{\bold x} \in A}{\sum_{j=1}^n{\frac{1}{|{\bold x} - {\bold x}_j|^{p}}}}}$$ (which…

For real $\xi$ we consider the irrationality measure function $\psi_\xi(t) = \min_{1\leqslant q \leqslant t, q\in\mathbb{Z}} || q\xi ||$, where $||\cdot||$ - distance to the nearest integer. We prove that in the case…

This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of factor models of high dimension, where the number of variables (N) is comparable with or even greater than the number of observations (T). An inferential theory is developed. We…

This paper considers estimation of large dynamic factor models with common and idiosyncratic trends by means of the Expectation Maximization algorithm, implemented jointly with the Kalman smoother. We show that, as the cross-sectional…

A combinatorial proof of the Gaussian product inequality (GPI) is given under the assumption that each component of a centered Gaussian random vector $\boldsymbol{X} = (X_1, \ldots, X_d)$ of arbitrary length can be written as a linear…

It is not generally known, that the inequality that Bell derived using three random variables must be identically satisfied by any three corresponding data sets of plus and minus 1s that are writable on paper.This surprising fact is not…

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

The Cauchy distribution is usually presented as a mathematical curiosity, an exception to the Law of Large Numbers, or even as an "Evil" distribution in some introductory courses. It therefore surprised us when Drton and Xiao (2016) proved…

It is shown that \begin{equation*} \mathsf{P}(\|a_1U_1+\dots+a_nU_n\|>u)\le c\,\mathsf{P}(a\|Z_d\|>u) \end{equation*} for all real $u$, where $U_1,\dots,U_n$ are independent random vectors uniformly distributed on the unit sphere in…

One can often encounter claims that classical (Kolmogorovian) probability theory cannot handle, or even is contradicted by, certain empirical findings or substantive theories. This note joins several previous attempts to explain that these…